According to Infaoliva, prices at origin for extra virgin olive oil, virgin and lampante have fallen to their lowest levels since June 2022, with extra virgin at €3.358 per kilogram, virgin at  €3.092 and lampante at €2.953.

The sharp drop in prices at origin has prompted the Andalusian chapter of Cooperativas Agro-Alimentarias, an agricultural cooperative union, to call for the withdrawal of excess olive oil from the market under Article 167 of E.U. Regulation 1308/2013, calling it “absolutely necessary.”

“This is a mandatory olive oil withdrawal mechanism activated in situations of clear risk of market imbalance,” Cooperativas Agro-Alimentarias wrote on its website. “It allows for supply regulation without compromising the viability of olive farms, especially the most vulnerable, such as those cultivated using dry land, which occupy more than 70 percent of the surface area.”

However, Juan Vilar, the chief executive of olive oil consultancy Vilcon, said it is still too early to talk about taking olive oil off the market and “negatively affecting price trends.”

“We also don’t know what next year’s production will be; to discuss using a tool that would artificially influence prices, there’s still no justification for that,” he said, anticipating that the announcement could contribute to the downward trend of prices.

According to Vilar, the trigger prices that would engage the current olive oil storage mechanism sit at €1.78 per kilogram of extra virgin, €1.71 per kilogram of virgin and €1.50 per kilogram of lampante olive oil. “Prices still haven’t fallen to those critical stress levels,” he said. 

If it were to be enacted, the current European olive oil storage protocol works through a market-based tender where a producer offers to hold a specific volume of virgin or extra virgin olive oil in a sealed tank for at least 180 days based on a price set by the European Union.

“After those 180 days, the oil returns to the market. And because the producer didn’t flood the market with its olive oil, the producer receives a subsidy, which is also set by the European Union according to the tenders held at that time,” Vilar said. 

“The idea is to immobilize olive oil in the mill in a controlled way so that, by temporarily removing it from the market, it helps slow down the drop in prices,” he added.

For his part, Vilar does not expect the Spanish and European authorities to change the mechanism, so current price levels will not trigger it.

However, Cooperativas Agro-Alimentarias Andalusia is concerned that, if olive oil production reaches the optimistic estimate of 1.6 million metric tons in the 2025/26 crop year, then prices will continue to fall.

For many medium and larger producers, prices lower than €3 per kilogram make their operations unprofitable. Smaller producers say that prices below €7 per kilogram are unsustainable, though they usually prioritize quality and sell above market rates anyway.

According to Spain’s Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food, Spain has 762,800 tons of olive oil stocks after the first eight months of the 2024/25 crop year, 55 percent more than at the same period last year and eight percent above the four-year average.

Based on current market dynamics, Spain is likely to start the coming 2025/26 crop year on October 1st with olive oil stocks slightly exceeding 400,000 tons, the average of the previous four years.

“The mandatory withdrawal mechanism must be activated when the value of olive oil availability (production, stocks and imports) estimated for the campaign significantly exceeds average outputs (domestic market and exports),” Cooperativas Agro-Alimentarias Andalusia wrote.

• Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food

“Prices for all categories are below the levels of the last two campaigns, with differences in extra virgin olive oil depending on the representative market,” the ministry wrote.

According to its data, extra virgin olive oil prices reached €349 per 100 kilograms in the 21st week of 2025, compared to €797 per 100 kilograms in the same week of 2024 and €606 per 100 kilograms in 2023. Prices for virgin, lampante and refined olive oil have declined by similar margins.

Olive oil prices in Spain increased significantly in 2023 and 2024, primarily due to historically poor harvests and rising production costs.

However, a wet winter and mild spring temperatures resulted in a significant production rebound in the 2024/25 crop year. 

Despite recent developments, there is also a reasonably positive outlook for the upcoming harvest. Both factors are primarily responsible for the dramatic price decline over the past eight months.

Juan Vilar, the chief executive of olive oil and agricultural consultancy Vilcon, highlighted that pricing movements reflect the natural balancing mechanism between supply and demand.

“There has been an almost complete recovery in demand, which had plummeted due to the supply crisis of previous years,” he told Olive Oil Times. “The only mechanism that balances real demand with future supply expectations is pricing, which—when lowered—drives demand upward to absorb available supply.” 

“This trend will continue until demand adjusts to production plus inventory levels, at which point, if supply becomes unsustainable, the only way to stimulate demand would be by reducing prices below the established threshold,” Vilar added.

However, the dramatic decline in prices has left some producers concerned about market manipulation and speculative pricing. 

Spain’s Union of Small Farmers (UPA) and COAG have issued warnings that many producers entering an ‘off year’ in the natural alternate bearing cycle of the olive tree, combined with abnormally high temperatures and the emergence of pests in some areas, could impact the 2025/26 yield.

“The price decline doesn’t reflect market reality,” said Juan Luis Ávila, the head of olive oil at the Coordinating Committee of Farmers and Ranchers’ Organizations (COAG). “We are convinced that there are hidden agreements that are manipulating prices at source to harm farmers and benefit certain intermediaries. We don’t have the resources to prove what’s happening, but the evidence is clear.”

Additionally, UPA Granada secretary-general Nicolás Chica accused certain market operators of spreading overly optimistic projections about the upcoming harvest and driving down prices paid to farmers below the level of their costs.

“We can’t allow intentional messages about the future to be sent when we still have to wait to see how temperatures and the weather in general behave,” he said. “We already have experience from previous campaigns in which climatic anomalies caused us to suffer the worst harvests in history.”

• Olearevista
• Infobae

According to the ministry’s official figures, the average price of one liter of extra virgin olive oil was €11.40 in April 2025 (approximately €12.45 per kilogram).

In the same month, the ministry recorded prices ranging from €3.96 per kilogram in Spain to €9.55 per kilogram in Italy.

In April 2025, while the average price in the European Union was €6.13 per kilogram, Croatian olive oil reached €12.50 per kilogram, 104 percent higher. This marks an 18 percent increase compared to the previous month.

The ministry also noted that the April 2025 price is nearly identical to the one recorded in April 2024.

After a year of fluctuations, Croatian olive oil prices are rising again, continuing a trend seen in recent years.

On average, the wholesale price in 2024 was 23 percent higher than the previous year, 50 percent higher than in 2022 and 73 percent higher than in 2021.

In 2020, the average retail price of packaged olive oil in Croatia was €5.47 per liter. It rose to €5.75 in 2021, €6.74 in 2022, €8.83 in 2023 and reached €12 in 2024.

According to ministry graphs, Croatian olive oil has consistently been priced well above that of other major producing countries in the European Union.

The ministry attributed this to several factors, including growing consumer awareness of quality products.

Other drivers include international market trends and the volume of local olive oil production. Imports are playing an increasingly important role in shaping market prices.

Data from the International Olive Council shows that Croatia has produced an average of almost 4,000 metric tons of olive oil annually over the past five years, while yearly consumption exceeds 8,000 tons.

“There are several reasons why Istrian olive oils are often more expensive than many other European olive oils,” Rudolf Nemetschke, managing director at Avistria, an award-winning producer, told Olive Oil Times.

Referring specifically to Istria, Croatia’s northwesternmost region, Nemetschke explained that most producers manage small, family-owned plots that require intensive manual labor and face higher costs.

“Due to topography, mechanization is often limited,” Nemetschke said.

Much Istrian olive oil is produced under European Union Protected Designation of Origin and Protected Geographical Indication certifications, which require strict quality standards.

“Istria’s microclimate, shaped by the Bora wind, sunshine, limestone and red soil, creates ideal conditions for top-quality oils,” Nemetschke said.

“This leads to intense, complex flavors highly valued in the market. Such unique growing conditions are limited and therefore more expensive,” he added.

Nemetschke also noted that Istrian oils are mainly exported to niche markets, such as gourmet shops and high-end restaurants, which affects distribution costs.

Another factor is labor. “Labor is expensive and scarce in Istria, where the booming tourism industry has absorbed most of the available workforce,” Nemetschke said.

Although mills in the region now utilize advanced equipment, these investments are relatively recent and still impact operating costs.

“This might also put some pressure on the price level,” Nemetschke said.

Additional challenges are shared with producers across Europe.

“Glass prices have risen dramatically in recent years. The cost of bottles has more than doubled, and small producers suffer most since glass prices are degressive,” he said, where the cost per unit decreases as the quantity purchased increases.

Nemetschke believes that higher prices can influence how consumers perceive the quality of olive oil.

“Many consumers associate a higher price with better quality, especially for gourmet or specialty products like olive oil,” he said. “For Istrian producers, higher prices help position the oil as a luxury or artisanal product.” 

However, high prices can also act as a barrier. “If premium oils are positioned only as luxury items, it might alienate average consumers who feel excluded from good olive oil,” Nemetschke warned.

“Higher prices can definitely raise awareness, but only if producers combine them with smart consumer education,” he added.

This includes transparent labeling, featuring harvest date, variety and polyphenol content, as well as tastings, workshops and storytelling about terroir, family production and awards.

“All of these help consumers understand why high-quality olive oil costs more, and why it’s worth it,” Nemetschke said.

Tedi Chiavalon, co-owner of the award-winning Istrian producer OPG Chiavalon, noted that market prices alone rarely offer an accurate picture.

“I find the use of the terms ‘high’ or ‘low’ price often misleading in the olive oil world, because we are rarely comparing products of the same category or quality,” Chiavalon said.

He believes the focus should shift from price and origin to the actual quality of the oils.

“Under the ‘extra virgin’ label, the market offers everything from low-grade industrial oils to small-batch, early-harvest artisanal oils,” he said.

“Comparing their prices is like comparing a diamond to a piece of gravel: both may come from the earth, but they’re fundamentally different in value.”

Chiavalon argues that a product is not overpriced if it sells consistently.

“A product becomes ‘too expensive’ only when buyers are no longer willing to pay for it, and it remains unsold,” he said. “In our case, the exact opposite is happening: tanks are empty well before the new harvest. The demand for premium extra virgin olive oil continues to grow exponentially, year after year.”

“For consumers who seek truth, purity and traceability, the price is not a deterrent. It’s part of the value proposition,” Chiavalon said. “Yes, some may adjust their purchasing habits, but those committed to real food will continue to seek out honest oils, even if they cost a little more. In that sense, price becomes an indicator, not a barrier.”

Chiavalon said this trend is not limited to Croatia.

“It applies to all genuinely crafted, small-batch extra virgin olive oils, regardless of origin,” he said. “These oils are becoming increasingly rare as climate challenges grow and industrial production expands.”

In Chiavalon’s view, the prices of high-quality extra virgin olive oils will remain high or rise even more.

“Not because they’re marketed as premium, but because they are fundamentally different from the mass-market alternatives they are too often lumped together with,” he concluded.

A bargain price, considering that the average price of Italian extra virgin olive oil at origin has been fluctuating at double that cost in the last few weeks.

“It is a good price,” Alessandra Rossi, a mother of two, told Olive Oil Times while examining the special discounted offer. “I wonder about quality, though,” she added while looking at the label on the bottles: it indicates that the product does not come from Italian olive trees, as it is a blend sourced from imported extra virgin olive oil.

In a nearby supermarket, another olive oil offer is promoted for the same substantial discount: €4.99 per liter of extra virgin olive oil.

Some pallets and cartons placed in the very center of the shop ensure that all incoming customers are well aware of the ongoing discount.

Offers such as those began appearing since March across the country. Promoted as low-cost offers, such sales are considered legal only when their special-price duration is limited to a handful of days.

As Italian olive oil prices at origin remain stable on the country’s main markets, large retailers promote products from little-known or previously unheard-of brands that carry Italian names.

Still, those extra virgin olive oils are mostly blends sourced through bulk olive oil imports from the Mediterranean Basin.

Spanish, Tunisian, and Turkish olive oil, whose quotations are significantly lower on the main markets, represent the perfect source of olive oil for retailers aiming to entice consumers with super-discounted extra virgin olive oil bottles.

In a country with a substantially stagnant economy and declining olive oil production volumes, supermarkets rely on well-established strategies.

The significant distance between the Italian product’s price at origin and the discounted prices reveals the challenges Italian producers face in staying on the market.

Italian farmers’ associations and other stakeholders in the olive oil production chain, such as the many olive oil mills spread throughout the country, have protested for years against such discounts.

Italian growers and olive oil millers say they cannot compete with those prices.

“Continuous promotions, which we have criticized for a long time, have devalued the product, treating it like any commodity and impacting the entire supply chain, which is forced to operate without fair compensation, particularly in the agricultural sector,” Andrea Carrassi, general director of the national producers association Assitol, told Olive Oil Times in 2024.

Alberto Statti, president of the Calabrian branch of the farmers’ association Confagricoltura, also underlined the hidden risk of such discounted offers in a 2020 interview: “Those offers make consumers believe that extra virgin olive oil comes cheap.”

A well-known study by Maria Lisa Clodoveo warned in 2020 that such discounts could open new space on the Italian market for lower-quality olive oil blends.

“Selling off extra virgin olive oil means to condemn olive groves to extinction, because a culture that does not provide a fair income to the guardians of biodiversity, the olive growers, is a culture with no social, economic or environmental sustainability,” Clodoveo said at the time.

In neighboring Spain, the world’s largest olive oil-producing country, farmers and consumer associations are urging market authorities to investigate the current dynamics of olive oil prices.

In May, the Coordinator of Farmers and Ranchers Organizations (COAG), the national agricultural union, lodged a formal complaint with the National Commission of Markets and Competition (CNMC), Spain’s competition authority.

According to the complaint, the prices of olive oil in the market are being artificially manipulated, potentially violating Spain’s competition laws.

COAG’s complaint focuses on a significant discrepancy between the price paid to olive oil producers and the estimated fair market value.

According to COAG, a study conducted by the universities of Jaén and Córdoba, along with the Andalusian Institute of Agricultural and Fisheries Research and Training (IFAPA), shows that the average price paid to producers is approximately €3.50 per kilogram. In contrast, the fair market value is estimated at €5.55 per kilogram.

COAG noted that the €2 per kilogram gap could result in losses of up to €2.8 billion for olive growers during the current season.

According to the agricultural union, the observed price discrepancies are not justified by production data or market conditions, suggesting possible collusion among market operators to suppress prices.

Should such practices be confirmed, they would violate current competition regulations.

COAG’s initiative follows previous concerns raised by consumer rights organization FACUA-Consumers in Action.

In April, FACUA accused six major supermarket chains of engaging in a “non-aggression pact” by uniformly setting prices for their private-label extra virgin olive oil.

FACUA observed that after one of them reduced its price to €5.55 per liter, the other chains quickly matched this price, raising suspicions of coordinated pricing strategies.

Both organizations are requesting an immediate, comprehensive investigation, which they believe is crucial to protect the entire olive oil production chain.

“Not everyone knows that producing extra virgin olive oils with recognized health-promoting properties is costly, and those who buy low-cost oil should be aware that they are simply purchasing a lipid-based condiment mechanically extracted from a fruit, not a functional food capable of acting as a disease-preventing agent,” Clodoveo wrote in her research in 2020.

“In fact, the reputation of being a ‘powerful healer’ or a ‘nutritional fragrance’ currently applies to only a very small portion of the retail market, accounting for roughly ten percent of the extra virgin olive oils available,” she added.



In the meantime, the discounted olive oils pile up in Rossi’s cart as she approaches the supermarket cashier.

• Huffington Post

According to partial data from the Olive Growers Cooperative, the small Mediterranean archipelago nation, home to about half a million people, produced 37 metric tons of olive oil from 227 tons of olives in the 2024/25 crop year. 

The current harvest came after the bumper crop in 2023/24, which yielded 121 tons of olive oil, and is 48 percent below the average of the previous four harvests.

Growers attributed the reduced olive harvest to strong winds, an unseasonal April heatwave and insufficient rainfall. 

Jimmy Magro, president of the Olive Growers Cooperative, described the past season as “terrible.” The wind destroyed blossoms, and the warm weather prevented trees from hibernating, reducing productivity. 

“2024 was not only a very hot and very dry year; at the end of April, we also faced a series of spring storms that wiped out many of the blossoms,” Kurt Mifsud, the chief executive of Mediterranean Culinary Academy, confirmed to the Michelin Guide. “Those powerful winds greatly diminished the chances of pollination, which is essential for fruiting.”

Ramla Valley, a family-run cottage industry producing extra virgin olive oil on Gozo, Malta’s second-largest island, is among the producers hit hardest by the harsh conditions. 

“Since we began cultivating olive trees in 1997, we have never experienced such a low fruit yield,” owner George Carl Camilleri told Olive Oil Times. “The primary causes were a lack of rain, despite continued irrigation, extreme temperatures and other adverse weather conditions.”

The trees initially bloomed vigorously, but unexpected rainfall disrupted pollination just as the flowers opened. Two additional flowerings followed, both met with severe environmental challenges. 

“The second bloom coincided with strong southeasterly winds, turning the skies yellowish-orange for an extended period, while humidity levels soared to 98 percent, further hindering pollination,” Camilleri said. “The third flowering took place under intense heat, causing many flowers to dry out completely.”

As a result, individual trees bore olives in three distinct stages, leading to an overall yield reduction of nearly 80 percent.

Despite the difficulties, Ramla Valley remained proactive. Continuous watering, applying Kaolin clay to reduce heat stress and installing olive fruit fly traps helped protect their remaining crop. 

“Excessive temperatures kept olive flies from being a significant threat,” Camilleri said. “We also closely monitored other pests, such as the olive bark beetle and wood borers, which thrive in dry conditions, particularly in neighboring fields that lacked irrigation access.”

“Soil management also played a crucial role in mitigating damage,” he added. “By mowing grass and repurposing it as mulch, we prevented water evaporation while sustaining soil fauna and microorganisms.” 

Camilleri said the harvested olives yielded high-quality extra virgin olive oil despite dramatically lower yields. 

“While the weather remains beyond our control, our longstanding investment in drip irrigation systems has been invaluable,” he said. ‘Though expenses were substantial, we were well-prepared and avoided being caught off guard.”

On the main island of Malta, local olive farmer Immanuel Grima confirmed that his endemic Bidini olive grove also suffered from a low harvest.

“That’s obviously disappointing for us and other small-scale producers, as well as for top-tier Maltese restaurants that like to use our olive oil,” he said.

Indeed, Darren Mifsud, director of Diar il-Bniet, a restaurant and greengrocer that promotes local products, said he had to raise his olive oil prices from €12 per liter to €16 to €18 per liter.

However, most of Malta’s 1,000 metric tons of annual olive oil consumption comes from imports. After rebound harvests in the rest of the region, food importers Alf Mizzi & Sons anticipated lower prices for imported oils.

Despite very low production compared to nearby Tunisia or Italy, Grima said he sees potential to increase Bidini production, similarly to how Albanian producers are working to market the endemic Kalinjot variety despite the challenges faced by Maltese olive oil producers.

“The name ‘Bidni’ refers to the valley around Bidnija, some two kilometers south of St Paul’s Bay,” Grima said. “This unique Maltese cultivar has been present there since Roman times.”

“We could expand our acreage, but arable land is scarce in Malta and, due to the islands’ rapid economic expansion in recent years, its price has become exorbitantly high, increasing fivefold in a short time,” he added. 

“We have observed that olive tree cultivation on small-scale farms in Malta has doubled in the last decade, which has enabled this revival to gain further momentum,” Grima concluded. “Demand for Bidni olive trees is also on the rise.”

• Times of Malta
• Michelin Guide

The campaign aims to reignite Australian consumers’ interest in using olive oil, as rising prices in recent years have impacted consumption in the country. The initiative focuses on how a drizzle of high-quality extra virgin olive oil before serving can add flavor and aroma to dishes.

The “Get Drizzling” campaign is a continuation of a similar digital campaign launched in 2023, which drew attention on social media.

Some of Australia’s most influential tastemakers, such as celebrity chef Khanh Ong, have teamed up with ΑΟΟΑ to inspire consumers to start drizzling.

The campaign is also producer and brand-agnostic, aiming to promote all grades of olive oil.

“The campaign is unique in that it’s not promoting specific brands or origin of oil; it is a celebration of the whole category of olive oil,” said Jan Jacklin, the AOOA’s general manager.

According to AOOA, the campaign comes at an important time for the Australian olive oil industry.

“Last year, olive oil prices hit a record high and we saw consumers leave the category because of cost-of-living pressures,” said David Valmorbida, president of the AOOA.

“This year, prices are falling, so it’s the perfect time to promote olive oil and remind consumers of the flavor that a drizzle of extra virgin olive oil offers,” he added.

On average, Australia produces around 20,000 metric tons each year, while more than 32,000 tons of olive oil are imported to meet domestic demand, mainly from the European Union. 

The average consumption of olive oil in the country hovers around 50,000 tons per annum, which translates to a per capita consumption of approximately 1.92 kilograms.

In 2024, however, per capita consumption of olive oil in the country declined, reaching approximately 1.28 kilograms.

In that year, olive oil prices in Australia rose by almost 20 percent, reaching A$25 (€14) for a liter of extra virgin olive oil. 

The main drivers of the price surge were high production costs and unfavorable growing conditions, such as inclement weather and the manifestation of olive pests, which put pressure on the industry.

Furthermore, imported extra virgin olive oil in Australia became more expensive than locally produced extra virgin olive oil, reversing a long-standing characteristic of the Australian market.

The objective of the AOOA campaign is to increase olive oil consumption in the country, ultimately. 

The association has estimated that if half of the Australians drizzled just ten milliliters of olive oil to finish a dish each day, it would mean an extra 47 million liters of olive oil would be consumed each year, practically doubling the country’s annual consumption.

The amount of ten milliliters is even less than the daily intake of olive oil (about two tablespoons, or approximately 30 milliliters), which health experts deem the optimal quantity for tangible health benefits.

The Spanish Olive Oil Interprofessional Organization also supports the “Get Drizzling” campaign. Spain is a significant exporter to Australia, accounting for more than two-thirds of Australia’s annual olive oil imports.

“It’s important for Australian consumers to understand that with just a drizzle of olive oil they’ll get a better, healthier and tastier dish,” said the interprofessional’s general manager, Teresa Pérez Millán.

Official data from the European Commission’s observatory for olive oil and table olives forecasted that Greece would produce 229,500 tons of olive oil at the end of February. In contrast, this season’s production is expected to reach the initially estimated 250,000 tons.

Greece emerged as the second-largest olive oil producer in the E.U. in the 2024/25 crop year after Spain. When all the Mediterranean producing countries are considered, Greece is expected to rank fourth, behind Turkey and Tunisia.

The expected national yield of 250,000 tons of olive oil also represents a twofold increase from last year’s historically low harvest of around 120,000 tons.

The prolonged drought that dominated southern Greece last fall, which spread anxiety among producers about reduced yields, was followed by abundant rains that transformed the country’s olive oil industry.

“The first olive oils of the season were not of the quality we were looking for because of the drought,” olive miller Christos Valavanis from Mani in southern Peloponnese told Olive Oil Times. “However, the November rains in our area were decisive for the olive trees to rebound and deliver oils of fine quality.”

Producers in almost all of southern Greece have enjoyed robust yields this season.

“We are very pleased this year despite the early estimates of a reduced production due to the long dry summer,” said Kostas Panagiotopoulos of the Monopati producers’ association in Ilia in western Peloponnese.

“Compared to last season, we had a 30 percent increase in quantity,” he added. “Of course, if it weren’t for the high temperatures of the summer, the quantity would have been even higher.”

On the island of Evia, which runs parallel with central Greece to the east, producer and miller Michalis Kounouvelis from Kehries said the season was rewarding for local producers compared to the previous harvest.

“We have got twice as much as last year’s olive oil from our Megaritiki olive trees,” Kounouvelis said. “In advance, the quality is excellent, with the acidity of the oils in our area only reaching 0.2 to 0.3 percent.”

However, the region’s olive groves still bear the scars of the 2021 fires, with state aid for impacted farmers lagging.

“The 2021 wildfires took a heavy toll in our area,” Kounouvelis said. “A lot of olive trees were burned, and producers with damaged or destroyed trees have so far been compensated with only €25 per tree. The amount is not enough to cover the damage.”

After the 2021 wildfires, full-time olive growers in Greece expected to receive approximately €100 for each olive tree damaged by fire.

Despite the increased olive oil yields across Greece compared to last year, farmers and millers in some parts of the country produced less than initially expected.

Across the Aegean Sea on the island of Lesbos, a traditional Greek olive oil-producing region, the expectations for a crop close to the island’s top production capacity were dashed at milling time.

“The trees were loaded with olives, but the lack of rains caused the olives to yield less oil than expected,” local producer and mill owner Michalis Tzortzis said.

“The overall olive oil production on the island will likely stay below 10,000 tons compared to around 18,000 tons in abundant years,” he added. “Nevertheless, it is still a big improvement from the previous disastrous season.”

Tzortzis finally said that a slim production of olive oil should be expected in the 2025/26 crop year on Lesbos. He blamed this on the late blossoming of the trees this spring and the biennial production cycle of the island’s indigenous olive varieties, the Adramytini and the Kolovi.

Crete is another traditional producing territory where olive oil production has recovered this season. In the western part of the island, the region of Chania has lived up to its reputation as a place where high-quality olive oil is produced.

“We expect the region to give around 23,000 tons compared to only 16,000 tons last year,” Ioannis Mamidakis from the local department of agriculture told Olive Oil Times. “The quality of the olive oils is also exceptional, with 92 percent of the season’s fresh oils classified as extra virgin,” he added.

This year, olive oil prices tell a different story: producers across the country are frustrated by the existing prices at origin, which have more than halved from last year’s €10 per kilogram of extra virgin olive oil.

“The new reality is around €4.30 for a kilogram of low-acidity extra virgin,” said Yiorgos Kokkinos, the head of the Nileas association from Hora in southern Peloponnese.

“The initial projection of the IOC for a global production of 3.4 million tons has been confirmed,” Kokkinos also said. “At the same time, the market is not interested in buying [olive oil]. Some expect prices to rise, but I do not share these expectations. I will say again that prices will fall further if we have another year with such [high] production.”

Some farmers’ associations in the country are resorting to measures such as setting a minimum price in auctions to avoid selling below a fixed price threshold.

In Messenia, the agricultural association of Kalamata’s auction for 25 tons of freshly produced extra virgin olive oil ended without a deal. The association argued that the potential buyers “did not respond” to the asking price of €5.10 per kilogram.

However, in neighboring Laconia, the agricultural association of Molaon-Pakion sold 80 tons of extra virgin olive oil for a lower price.

“We agreed to sell 80 tons for €4.75 per kilogram,” the association’s manager, Panagiotis Danakas, said. “The producers need to sell to cover their expenses. But the Greek state should introduce measures at a E.U. level for imports of olive oil from third countries.”

“Those producers who can afford to wait do not sell,” Mamidakis from Chania said. “This practice, however, entails the risk of buyers turning to other markets to purchase olive oil.”

• Agrotypos
• Ypaithros

The Milan-based trade association, which publishes weekly agricultural commodity prices, indicated that the average price for European extra virgin olive oil (excluding Italy) is €4,750 per metric ton.

Walter Zanre, the managing director of Filippo Berio UK, told Olive Oil Times that prices at origin across Europe, except for Italy, may keep falling if there is a positive fruit set in Spain later this spring.

“At the beginning of 2022, prices were lower than they are today, which is why I think there’s room for price to come down if there is the prospect of another good crop,” he said.

Filippo Berio’s latest data show that Spain is expected to produce between 1.43 and 1.45 million tons of olive oil in the 2024/25 crop year, the largest harvest since 2021/22 and the second highest since 2018/19.

 ”Tunisia and Turkey are also forecasting big productions, and that is the result of high prices, which have attracted money to the sector,” Zanre said. “Some of the olives that would’ve been destined to table olives have been diverted into the olive oil crushing business because there’s a better return short-term.”

Filippo Berio data further forecasted that Greek olive oil production would reach 280,000 tons, Portugal would harvest 150,000 tons, Morocco’s yield would rebound to 120,000 tons, and Syria would produce 140,000 tons.

Despite the rebound, Zanre said most of the olive oil produced in Turkey and Syria, along with a significant portion of Tunisian and Moroccan production, is destined for Middle Eastern countries. Therefore, this olive oil would have a less substantial impact on European and North American markets compared to Spain, Italy, Portugal, and Greece.

“Global production is coming in at around 3.3 million tons, which is the highest for quite some time and puts everything back into equilibrium,” he added.

The latest data from Spain manifest the return of equilibrium to the olive oil market, where monthly sales have returned to their normal levels before the two historically poor harvests in 2022/23 and 2023/24. 

Olive oil sales reached 110,000 tons in February, “which is where Spain normally is,” Zanre said. “ Last year, Spain had been 60,000 to 70,000 tons a month restricted purely by the availability of oil.”

The next three months will be decisive in determining the future direction of olive oil prices. Whether cooperatives and bottlers sit on replenished stock to last until 2026 or try to move product more quickly will depend on the fruit set in May.

“ At the moment, the co-ops are sitting on just over 880,000 tons, and bottlers’ stocks are at 200,000 tons, the highest since July 2023,” Zanre said. “Bottlers had reduced their stock holdings since olive oil had become so expensive.”

“By the latter part of 2024 into January, everybody was trying to carry no stock because they were expecting the price to come down,” he added. “But bottlers are now back to normal stock levels, which means that the availability problems retailers have seen probably from October to January are now going away.”

While prices at origin have stabilized, Marco De Feo, the vice-president of marketing at Filippo Berio USA, expects some lag time before consumers find lower olive oil prices on the supermarket shelves.

“Even though we’ve seen a drop in raw material costs, we have not seen the full effect of shelf price reduction,” he said. “Supermarkets still have stock at the old price, and it will take time to deplete the current stock—maybe two or three months—and then we might start seeing a price reduction on the shelf.”

In the meantime, Zanre said everyone in the sector is waiting to see how the flowering evolves in Spain. 

Another wet winter means reservoirs have refilled across Andalusia, which is responsible for most Spanish olive oil production. Temperatures in April and May will dictate the 2025/26 crop year’s outcome.

The significant production declines in 2022/23 and 2023/24 were mainly due to extreme heat in May damaging the olive trees as they flowered, which prevented any fruit from setting.

“If there’s a good flowering, then I expect prices to weaken quite considerably,” Zanre said. “If there’s a poor flowering, then we’re back into the good year, bad year cycle, which could force pricing up.”

“But if there’s good flowering, the Spanish crushers will not want to be holding stocks carrying them into next year,” he added.

Lowering prices at origin have made some Spanish producers wary of returning to the situation they found themselves in at the beginning of the decade when prices at origin dropped below the cost of production.

Zanre warned that a bumper harvest in Spain and strong harvests in Italy and elsewhere in the Mediterranean basin could cause prices at origin to fall to similarly low levels.

 ”Spain has production costs of around €2.50 per liter,” he said. “ Anything that gets down towards €2.50 or below becomes a real problem for the industry.”

“Unfortunately, we have a marketplace with no futures,” Zanre added. “You buy and you take delivery which makes it highly speculative.” 

However, the situation is distinct in Italy, where Filippo Berio anticipates production to decline to 200,000 tons in 2024/25. Granaria Milano data indicate that extra virgin olive oil prices in Italy originate at €9,600 per ton.

“I can’t see any reason other than a really good flowering for the Italian price to come down,” Zanre said.

He attributed this year’s production decline in Italy primarily to the olive tree’s natural alternate bearing cycle, with many producers entering an ‘off-year.’ 

However, Zanre added that broader systemic issues in Italy have steadily declined olive oil yields over the past decade.

“There’s declining production in Italy for two reasons,” he said. “One is the Xylella fastidiosa problem in Puglia where they’ve lost six million trees. The other thing is that Italy hasn’t been investing in olive agriculture, unlike Spain, so you’ve got a declining pool of production.”

Zanre pointed to Portugal and Spain, where large producers and private equity have made significant investments to plant new super-high-density groves in the southern regions of Alentejo and Andalusia and develop new milling technology to maximize yield and quality.

“There is a desire in Italy to change that,” he said. “The problem is that it takes five to seven years before an olive tree is producing commercially, and the people with the money don’t want to wait five to seven years.”

As a result, he believes the Italian government will need to spearhead any initiative to revitalize Italian olive oil production. 

Indeed, the government is currently working to implement a National Olive Plan to plant thousands of new groves, fund upgrades to existing mills, and create an interprofessional association to promote the sector. 

In the meantime, Zanre anticipates that olive oil production could continue to rise in Spain. “There is the capacity to exceed two million tons,” he concluded.

While this year’s yield will not reach the 1.65 million tons predicted before the harvest started in October, it is significantly more than the 665,800 tons produced in 2022/23 and 852,600 tons the year after.

Spain was poised for a bumper harvest after a wet winter and mild spring temperatures. However, a lack of rain at the end of summer and the beginning of autumn, extreme weather events, including hail, and labor shortages resulted in a lower production total.

The southern Spanish autonomous community of Andalusia led the way, with production reaching nearly 981,000 tons by the end of January, shortly before the latest national production data were published. By comparison, Andalusia produced 574,295 tons in the previous crop year.

The most significant increases were in the province of Jaén, where production more than doubled, rising from 205,387 tons in 2023/24 to 469,562 tons by the end of January.

“We still have February and part of March, which could add a few more tons to total production,” said Luis Carlos Valero, manager and spokesperson for the Association of Young Farmers in Jaén (Asaja-Jaén).

Other notable increases were seen in the neighboring provinces of Córdoba (from 150,084 to 245,205 tons) and Granada (55,314 to 105,222 tons).

Spain’s second and third-largest olive oil-producing regions, Castille-La Mancha and Extremadura, also experienced significant production increases.

By the end of January, farmers and millers in Castille-La Mancha produced 130,672 tons compared to 108,620 tons in 2023/24.

Julián Martínez Lizán, the regional agriculture minister, told local media that he expected the harvest to finish “higher than the average of the last decade,” at 140,000 tons.

Meanwhile, production in neighboring Extremadura rose from 68,721 tons in 2023/24 to 76,442 tons in the first four months of the crop year, which began on October 1st.

As a result of the bumper harvest, olive oil stocks have risen to 865,176 tons, and Spanish authorities anticipate that Spain will finish the 2024/25 crop year in September with 295,389 tons.

By comparison, Spain finished January 2024 with 733,900 tons and the 2023/24 crop year with 190,389 tons of olive oil stocks.

The return of an average harvest and recovery of olive oil stocks has resulted in a dramatic decrease in prices at origin with a more gradual decline in supermarket prices.

Data from InfaOliva show that extra virgin olive oil prices have declined substantially from the record-high €8.988 per kilogram in January 2024 to €3.933 at the time of writing.

Similarly, virgin olive oil prices fell from €8.717 to €3.663 per kilogram, while lampante dropped from €8.563 to €3.490.

According to reporting from Las Provincias, prices have also declined for extra virgin olive oils across several major supermarket chains, ranging from a €0.20 drop for a liter to a €0.60 decline for three liters.

Victor Roig, the general manager of Deoleo in Spain, told Las Provincias that he expects production to reach 1.4 million tons in Spain with downward pressure on prices remaining.

“When there is no product, it is reflected in the prices, and then there is, it is noticeable in the very significant drop that is clearly seen on the shelves, and it is the trend that will continue until the next harvest,” he said.

“The logical thing is that we go to the prices of 2021 and 2022, between €3 and €4,” Roig added. “The whole context is positive for both the category and the consumer.”

• Economía Digital Andalucía
• Las Provincias

In its initial 2024/25 crop year estimates published in January, the International Olive Council forecasted that Turkey would produce 450,000 metric tons, exceeding the previous record of 421,000 tons in 2022/23 but below the Turkish Olive and Olive Oil Council’s (UZZK) preliminary estimate of 475,000 tons.

Saim Demirbaş, president of the Foça Agricultural Chamber, told local media that olive harvesting is nearly finished, but olive prices have not risen comparably to costs.

“Oil mills are purchasing olives at a price range of 130 to 150 lira (€3.40 to €3.95) [per kilogram],” he said, down from the 295 lira (€9) in the previous crop year.

Data from online olive oil trading marketplace Oleista show prices at origin for lampante, virgin and extra virgin olive oil ticked up in the second week of February to €4.53, €5.15 and €6.20 per kilogram, respectively.

However, farmers said these had not offset increasing energy, fertilizer and pesticide prices and rising labor costs.

“This year, olive producers are experiencing significant hardship,” Demirbaş confirmed. “Costs have increased by 50 percent between last year and this year.”

“Agricultural labor is becoming less attractive as a profession due to economic conditions,” he added. “Excessive increases in labor wages have significantly raised harvesting costs.”

Demirbaş calculated that it costs olive farmers about 180 lira (€4.75) to harvest the average six kilograms of olives needed to produce one liter of olive oil.

“If olive oil prices do not exceed 180 lira, producers can’t cover their basic expenses,” he said.

Producers, bottlers and exporters are also wary of how changing government policy might affect their ability to ship their product abroad.

An export ban imposed by the government in July 2023, aimed at stabilizing domestic prices and encouraging the export of individually packaged olive oil, has resulted in significant olive oil stocks.

Although the ban was lifted in October 2024, producers worry that some extra virgin olive oil may have degraded to a lower quality grade and will, therefore, be less valuable on the export market.

Others are concerned that government policy will change quickly, making long-term planning more challenging. The government has prohibited bulk olive oil exports three times since 2021, with the prohibitions lasting anywhere from six to 14 months.

Halit Uşak, an olive farmer in business for 30 years, told local media the combination of lower prices for olives with higher labor and production input costs has made the business unsustainable.

“The olives collected do not even cover the cost of the worker [wages],” he said. “The state must intervene in this situation as soon as possible and support the producers.”

Ömer Ulaş Kırım, president of the Turkish Chamber of Food Engineers in Izmir, called on the government to consider olive oil production and exports as strategic sectors for the country and provide the necessary support to help them succeed.

“Supporting producers and focusing on branding efforts during this process is of critical importance for the future of the sector,” he said. “This crisis can become an opportunity to strengthen the olive oil sector. However, for this, the voices of producers should be heard more strongly, and sustainable strategies should be developed in the long term.”

• Açik Gazete

The Ministry of Agriculture estimates that Tunisia will produce 340,000 metric tons in the 2024/25 crop year, the largest yield since the record-high 440,000 tons produced in 2019/20.

As a result, Tunisia’s National Olive Oil Office (ONH) expects exports to climb to 300,000 tons, a 50 percent increase compared to the previous crop year and the highest total since 2019/20.

However, falling olive oil prices at origin mean the value of these exports is unlikely to reach the record 5.16 billion dinar (€1.56 billion) in 2023/24.

The ONH also highlighted that an unprecedented 28,600 tons of exports in the past crop year were packaged olive oil, a significant increase from the 9,900 tons in 2022/23.

“Our country has made significant efforts in packaging our olive oil, which has enabled it to increase the export of packaged oil to 15 percent of total exports,” Salem Fourati, the vice president of the Tunis-based International Studies Association, wrote in Kapitalis.

He added that Tunisia is well-poised to capitalize on the increasing conventional and organic olive oil consumption trends.

Even so, Fourati advocated for a formal partnership with the European Union, which imported 176,051 tons of mostly bulk Tunisian olive oil in 2022/23, to encourage the export of individually packaged Tunisian extra virgin olive oil.

However, Fourati also identified some challenges facing the sector. Lower extra virgin olive oil prices at origin have long given Tunisia a competitive advantage compared to its counterparts on the northern shores of the Mediterranean, but this is beginning to change.

“Even though our production prices are lower than those of some European countries… they will experience a slow but certain progression for the farmer’s benefit, which will encourage the development of our olive groves,” Fourati wrote.

“Export prices will have to be slightly lower than those in Europe to avoid a market disruption that would be detrimental to all operators,” he added.

To maintain stable prices at an adequate level for farmers and millers while keeping exports competitive, Fourati advocated for a flexible market stabilization structure to support producers when prices are low and prevent prices from rising too high.

“Price control is essential for the future of Tunisian olive oil,” he wrote. The stabilization structure would “intervene in the collection at a reference price fixed for each campaign for olive oil which has not found a buyer on the market and this on condition of storage and possible discount.”

Fourati added that this support mechanism would require a floor price for exports of extra virgin, virgin and lampante olive oil to improve transparency and “avoid dubious transactions.”

Hamed Dali, the ONH’s chief executive, said the organization could purchase and store 80,000 tons of olive oil to ensure farmers receive a fair price.

As prices at origin fell in Spain and Greece, Dali added that the ONH was already purchasing olive oil at “fair market prices” to release later in the year when prices are more likely to increase.

However, Moez Ben Zaghdan, the Tunisian Union of Agriculture and Fisheries president, warned that this solution may be a blunt instrument due to the variation in production costs across the country.

“We cannot currently set the price of olive oil in Tunisia because of the specificity of each production region and distribution of production between the different varieties of the olive tree,” he told Kapitalis.

Despite the market challenges, Ben Zaghdan acknowledged that the situation looks good for olive farmers, pointing to recent rainfall improving water resources across the country as a positive sign for the 2025/26 crop year.

• Kapitalis
• Kapitalis
• National Olive Oil Office

Producer prices for extra virgin olive oil in the country have almost halved this year, ranging from €4.80 per kilogram in Crete to €5.30 per kilogram in Laconia in southern Peloponnese.

By comparison, in the previous 2023/24 crop year, prices at origin peaked at nearly €10.00 for a kilogram of low-acidity extra virgin olive oil.

In addition, the record olive oil prices in Greece were the main driver behind the high food inflation recorded in the country last year.

“Last year, with minimum production, prices at origin were at €9 or even €10,” said Michalis Kabitakis, vice-chair of the Association of Agricultural Cooperative Organizations and Enterprises of Greece.

“There is no [olive oil] stock this year to justify the high prices,” Kabitakis added. “Producers’ prices have dropped to €4.50 to €5.50 olive oil and still go for €11.50 to €14 a liter of extra virgin and for €8.50 to €10 a liter of virgin. This is pure profiteering.”

INKA, the Greek Consumers Institute, also protested the high olive oil consumer prices, with the head of the institute, Yiorgos Lechouritis, accusing the olive oil industry and the wholesalers of price speculation.

The industry argues that “it paid a lot for last year’s stock, “Lechouritis said. “Once again, we are talking about obscenity and speculation by the middlemen. There should be intensive and real monitoring of the prices from the moment [the olive oils] leave the producers until they reach the supermarkets.”

Olive oil producers, for their part, argued that the marketers and merchants are responsible for the significant discrepancy between producer and consumer prices of olive oil in Greece.

“They are grabbing the oil cheaply to sell it to consumers at high prices, thus making obscene profits to the detriment of producers and consumers,” the agricultural association of Chandrinos from western Messenia said in an announcement.

The association also called on farmers to drive their tractors out of the fields to the roads and streets across Greece, arguing that “only with our protests and tractors in the streets have we been able to make gains.”

Meanwhile, a rumored governmental intervention to limit domestic trading of olive oil in bulk has sparked controversy in Greece.

A common practice among Greek households is to purchase freshly produced extra virgin olive oil in 17-liter tins from small-scale producers, usually a friend or relative of the family.

After reaching record prices of €160 or more last year, this year, a 17-liter tin of high-quality, low-acidity extra virgin olive oil is more plausibly priced at €100 to €120. However, olive oil can only be traded in containers of up to five liters.

According to some estimates, an undocumented quantity of 60,000 to 70,000 metric tons of bulk olive oil is traded in tins in Greece every year.

According to reports in Greek media, the government is planning to penalize with a hefty fine of €5,000 any carrier of a 17-liter tin of olive oil with no consignment note.

Olive oil producers protested the alleged regulation, arguing that the measure is designed to fill the government’s coffers and will also impact their income.

“The measure planned by the government is unworkable and has the sole purpose of imposing punitive fines on producers at a time when the unbearable production costs are constantly rising,” Kabitakis said.

The Greek government quickly refuted the media reports, ruling out any planned changes in the country’s established trade of bulk olive oil in 17-liter tins for private use.

“What we have heard in the last few days is not true,” said Christos Dimas, the Greek deputy finance minister. “The transfer of small quantities of olive oil between friends and relatives continues informally without any infringement issues.”

• Flash
• Agro24
• CretaOne

According to the latest data from the International Olive Council (IOC), global consumption is expected to rise by ten percent in the 2024/25 crop year compared to the previous campaign.

If confirmed, this would mark a significant rebound following the 2.6 percent decline recorded in the 2023/24 crop year compared to the previous season.

As a result, global consumption in 2024/25 is projected to surpass 3,064,500 metric tons, up from the estimated 2,780,000 tons in 2023/24.

Notably, several olive oil-producing countries have seen significant fluctuations in consumption over the past six years.

According to IOC estimates, Spain, the world’s leading olive oil producer, has recorded a steady decline in consumption, remaining below 500,000 tons since the 2022/23 campaign.

Spain consumed 519,000 tons in 2019/20, 541,000 in 2020/21 and 580,000 in 2021/22. However, consumption plummeted to 363,000 tons in the 2022/23 crop year as extreme climate conditions severely impacted production and drove up prices across the Mediterranean.

Since then, consumption has gradually recovered. The IOC estimates 402,000 tons for 2023/24 and projects an increase to 460,000 tons in 2024/25.

Although these figures remain well below the record 580,000 tons reported in 2021/22, they align with the ten-season average of 483,850 tons.

Italy, a major olive oil producer, has maintained relatively stable consumption over the past five seasons, averaging 426,000 tons.

However, the IOC projects a four percent decline for 2024/25. If confirmed, this would mark the first time Italian olive oil consumption falls below 400,000 tons, reaching an estimated 395,000 tons.

If confirmed, this would represent a third consecutive year of declining olive oil consumption in Italy.

Overall, total olive oil consumption in the European Union is expected to exceed 1,326,000 tons in the 2024/25 crop year, reflecting a seven percent increase over the previous season.

“The European Union has experienced a downward trend in olive oil consumption in recent years,” the IOC said.

“Although global consumption has nearly doubled since the 1990/91 crop year, the E.U. has reduced its share of total consumption, dropping from over 70 percent in 2004/05 to around 45 percent in recent crop years,” the IOC remarked.

Among other key olive oil-producing countries, IOC projects a decline in consumption only in Algeria (-1 percent) and Egypt (-11 percent).

Major olive oil-importing countries are also expected to increase their purchases. In the United States, consumption is projected to grow by eight percent in 2024/25 compared to the five-year average.

China and Australia are also projected to significantly increase the total value of their olive oil imports.

Interestingly, olive oil consumption in Turkey is also gaining momentum, with a 21 percent increase expected in 2024/25 compared to the five-year average.

Turkey anticipates a significant olive oil production rebound in the current crop year, positioning the country among the world’s top producers.

Meanwhile, global table olive consumption is expected to remain stable, reaching 3,000,000 tons in 2024/25, compared to the estimated 2,900,000 tons in 2023/24.

The IOC highlighted how several countries have significantly expanded their table olive production over the past 30 years.

Since the 1990/91 crop year, Egypt’s table olive production has surged from 11,000 to 520,000 tons in 2023/24. Over the same period, Algeria’s output increased from 14,000 to 285,000 tons, while Turkey’s rose from 110,000 to 350,000 tons.

The IOC examined price fluctuations in its latest market analysis and identified a few notable trends.

One key trend is the fluctuation of olive oil prices at the mill. In major markets such as Jaén, Spain, and Chania, Greece, the price peaks recorded between October 2022 and October 2023 have decreased significantly.

As of October 2024, prices in both markets had dropped considerably. If this trend continues, prices in both countries could fall below €400 per 100 kilograms.

However, the situation in the Italian market presents a stark contrast.

In Bari, prices remain high at €950 per 100 kilograms, nearing the record levels seen in 2023. This trend aligns with a particularly challenging season for Italian olive oil producers.

• International Olive Council

According to preliminary estimates from the International Olive Council, Morocco will produce 90,000 metric tons of olive oil in the 2024/25 crop year, significantly below the five-year average of 141,600 tons.

“Morocco is facing a severe drought that has lasted for six years now,” a local farmer who declined to be identified told Olive Oil Times. “This prolonged dry period has caused significant challenges for our agricultural sector, affecting crop yields and water availability.”

According to Rachid Benali, the Moroccan Interprofessional Olive Federation president, “various climatic fluctuations” are responsible for the country’s ongoing production issues. “The problem is not limited to drought,” he told news agency Bladi.

Other producers in the country confirmed that high temperatures also resulted in smaller olive yields than in previous years.

“The production of a single olive tree compared to the previous year has decreased by about half, affecting the amount of oil extracted from these low harvests,” Mustapha Jabri, the owner of a mill in central Morocco, told Belpresse.

The drastic production decline has led to soaring local prices, which the Moroccan government has addressed by suspending import duties on extra virgin olive oil and introducing export regulations through specific licenses.

The ministry forecasted that prices could rise to 150 dirhams (€14) per liter, up from 90 to 100 dirhams (€8.60 to €9.55) at the start of the harvest. Data analyzed by Lloyds Bank showed that the average monthly salary in Morocco is 1,793 dirhams (€171).

Local consumer protection groups are also concerned that rising olive oil prices will attract more speculation.

“The intervention of intermediaries before and after the harvest, aimed at monopolizing the market, has amplified the rise in prices,” Bouazza Kherrati, president of the Moroccan Federation of Consumer Rights, told Hespress.

Meanwhile, Ali Chtour, the president of the Moroccan Association for the Defense of Consumer Rights, worries that higher prices will increase olive oil fraud.

He called on the government to increase controls on olive oil imports. “The climate crisis must not become a pretext for speculative practices that harm citizens,” he told Agrimaroc.

According to the IOC, Morocco has consumed an average of 148,000 tons of olive oil annually in the last five years and is forecasted to consume 140,000 tons in 2024/25.

As a result, the ministry announced plans to allow 30,000 tons of virgin and extra virgin olive oil imports in 2024 and 2025 to help stabilize prices, with shipments expected to come from Brazil, Italy, Spain, Tunisia and Turkey.

Meanwhile, olive farmers are worried that low production could cause consumers to turn to olive oil alternatives if there is a significant shortage. As a result, they welcomed the announcement of more imports but lamented that the decision had not been made sooner.

“The ministry is tirelessly working to find solutions, implement water-saving techniques, and support our farmers. But it’s an uphill battle,” the local farmer added. “The stress is palpable across the nation as we grapple with these unprecedented conditions and strive to ensure food security and sustainable agricultural practices.”

• SNRT News
• Belpresse
• Agrimaroc

According to preliminary data from the private sector, Uruguay produced 614 metric tons of olive oil in 2024, about one-third of the total yield in 2023 and 63 percent below the five-year average.

“The effects of the historic drought that the country experienced in 2023 were reflected in the results of a greatly reduced harvest in 2024,” María Noel Ackermann, an economist in the ministry’s office of agricultural programming and policy, wrote in an annual crop report.

However, Noel Ackermann described the outlook for the 2025 harvest as “auspicious” after a wet winter and mild spring temperatures resulted in a positive fruit set.

“The outlook for 2025, with better weather conditions for the time being, is auspicious, with adequate flowering and promising fruit setting,” she wrote.

Several producers, including the country’s largest, confirmed to Olive Oil Times that the 2025 harvest will be far better than the 2024 harvest but will unlikely reach the 2,047 tons produced in 2023.

Rising production – Uruguay produced nearly seven times as much olive oil annually in the past five years compared to the previous five years – has been matched with increasing consumption.

“The estimated consumption of olive oil and olive pomace oil in Uruguay has averaged around 1,800 tons in the last three years, a little more than half a liter per capita,” Noel Ackermann wrote. “A growing trend is evident with a medium-term view, given that national consumption was around 1,400 tons a decade ago.”

Local production now accounts for an increasing share of Uruguayan consumption, making up roughly half of national olive oil sales.

About half of national production is sold through wholesalers and supermarkets, with 30 percent sold direct-to-consumer and another 19 percent sold as white-label products.

Like everywhere else, the poor global harvests in the 2022/23 and 2023/24 crop years caused olive oil prices to rise in Uruguay.

Data from the National Institute of Statistics found that olive oil prices at retail increased by 23 percent in 2023 and 15 percent in the first ten months of 2024.

“Changes in consumer behavior, oriented towards healthier, more natural, safe and high-quality foods, offer possibilities for greater development of the sector in the future,” Noel Ackermann wrote.

The combination of poor harvests across much of the olive oil world and relatively strong domestic production in recent years has resulted in imported olive oils losing market share in Uruguay.

According to the ministry, Uruguayan olive oil and olive pomace oil imports reached 695 tons in 2023, a 20 percent decrease compared to the previous year.

In the first ten months of 2024, Uruguay imported 552 tons of olive oil, a nine percent decrease compared to the same period in 2023.

Noel Ackermann said the continued decline in imports despite a very low 2024 harvest indicated that consumption has fallen, likely due to higher prices.

Despite decreased volumes, olive oil imports by value reached $4.5 (€4.37) million in the first ten months of 2024, a 28 percent increase from the same period in 2023.

The plurality of Uruguayan olive oil imports by value came from Argentina, 37 percent, which gained market share in the previous two years due to the poor harvests in Spain and Italy. Imports from the two European nations comprised 35 percent and 23 percent, respectively.

Rising production has also led to an increase in olive oil exports, specifically to neighboring Brazil.

From April 2023 to March 2024 (the 2023/24 commercial year in Uruguay), exports reached 638 tons valued at $4.5 million, a 20 percent increase in volume sold and an 87 percent increase in revenue generated. Eighty percent of exports were extra virgin olive oil, with the rest corresponding to virgin.

However, these figures will be dramatically lower for the 2024/25 commercial year. From April to October, Uruguayan producers exported 52 tons of olive oil, an 88 percent decrease from the same period in the previous year, at a value of $608,000 (€590,000).

While virtually all virgin olive oil was exported to Spain to be blended and re-exported, two-thirds of extra virgin olive oil exports went to Brazil, followed by Spain, the United States and Argentina.

“Brazil and the United States are the sector’s big bets for extra virgin olive oil,” Noel Ackermann wrote. “These countries are strong global importers, with expanding consumption and production that fails to satisfy local demand.”

“In the case of Brazil, there is the preferential entry granted by Mercosur and geographical proximity, which determines lower transportation costs,” she concluded. “The United States is attractive because it is the market that pays the best for the product (last year, it was sold at more than $8,000 (€7,760) FOB per ton).”

The significant increase in value came despite Spain exporting 742,500 metric tons, which is only 3,600 more tons of olive oil than the country shipped abroad in 2022/23.

Officials said high olive oil prices were the main driver behind the significant increase in export revenues.

According to the Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food, the average price for olive oil exports was €8 per kilogram, 57 percent higher than the average for the previous crop year. Export prices peaked at €8.75 in March.

Italy remained the leading destination for Spanish olive oil exports, followed by the United States, where exports exceeded €1 billion for the first time, France and Portugal.

According to the ministry, virgin and extra virgin olive oil comprised 69 percent of the exports, while refined olive oil made up 29 percent and lampante represented the remaining two percent.

The news of the revenue rebound comes as the 2024/25 crop year shifts into full gear. According to a recent meeting of the Olive Oil Sector Board, production is expected to reach 1.29 million tons, a significant increase from 854,500 tons in 2023/24 and 666,000 tons in 2022/23.

The Olive Oil Sector board attributed the production rebound to “good crop conditions in many of the producing areas, thanks to the rains that have fallen in recent weeks.”

However, it falls significantly below earlier estimates, with producers initially anticipating a harvest between 1.4 to 1.5 million tons as late as October, down from an earlier, even more optimistic forecast of 1.65 million tons.

Producers and officials explained the decline due to some producers reporting lower oil yields and labor difficulties in some traditional and steep slop groves.

As a result of the consecutive years of poor production, olive oil imports to Spain also increased to help bottlers meet demand, rising by 12 percent in volume and 65 percent in value.

Spain imported €1.6 billion of olive oil, paying an average price of €6.60 per liter. Portugal was the country’s leading supplier, shipping 105,876 tons, a 41 percent increase compared to 2022/23, followed by Tunisia with 54,172 tons and Turkey with 21,935 tons, a 13 percent increase.

Regarding the domestic market, the Olive Oil Sector board said olive oil prices at origin have fallen by more than 25 percent since the start of October after hitting record highs during the past two crop years.

According to Infaoliva’s price observatory, extra virgin olive oil prices at origin have fallen to €4.40 per kilogram, down 51 percent from January’s record highs. Virgin and lampante prices have fallen by slightly less, dropping to €4.35 and €4.30, respectively.

The combination of falling prices and more availability means consumption will rise. The Olive Oil Sector Board forecasted olive oil consumption to reach 480,000 tons in the current campaign, 17 percent higher than in 2023/24.

• Agropopular
• Spanish Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food

“This year, too, the climate crisis has had a significant impact on the southern regions, which account for two-thirds of our olive production,” Andrea Carrassi, general director of the national producers association Assitol, told Olive Oil Times.

“In the central-northern regions, however, a good harvest is expected, though unfortunately insufficient to offset the decline in the south,” he added.

“Adding to this scenario is that the 2024/25 crop year represents an ‘off-year,’ with production far below average. As a result, we will have to import over 75 percent of our needs,” Carrassi noted.

Historical data from the International Olive Council (IOC) shows that Italy produced an average of almost 500,000 metric tons of olive oil annually during the 1990s.

In the following decade, that average rose to nearly 600,000 tons. Between 2010 and 2019, average annual production fell to just under 357,000 tons. Over the past five years, production exceeded 300,000 tons only twice.

Estimates for the 2024/25 crop year remain low for the current year, and producers also face severely diminished olive stocks.

According to ICQRF-Frantoio Italia, Italian extra virgin olive oil stocks reached 70,300 tons at the end of October 2024, 43 percent of which were of Italian origin.

These figures are significantly lower than the almost 100,000 tons reported in the same period last year.

In this context, the Italian Institute of Statistics recently highlighted how higher olive oil prices boosted the export value of Italian olive oil. In the first eight months of 2024, it surpassed €2 billion, exceeding the total for 2023.

In its latest report, the Public Institute for Services to the Agri-food Market (Ismea) noted that Italy remains the second-largest olive oil exporter and the most significant consumer.

“Supplies from other Mediterranean countries, primarily Spain, account for nearly 50 percent of our needs, tightly intertwining the fate of domestic production with foreign markets, particularly regarding price fluctuations,” the report stated.

According to Elia Pellegrino, president of the olive oil millers national association, Aifo, low-yield estimates were overly optimistic.

“We have seen this coming since September, and we said that repeatedly for weeks: yields will be down by 70 percent or even 75 percent. Way lower than those estimates projecting only a 30 percent drop over the last year,” Pellegrino told Olive Oil Times.

He also pointed to the share of olive oil production destined for self-consumption. “We are probably talking about 30 percent of the overall yields,” he noted.

“That means Italian olive oil volumes on the market will be largely insufficient. Prices for the full, true Italian national product will follow up on that and stay high,” Pellegrino added.

While prices in Spain, the largest producing country, are trending downward, they are steadily rising across southern Italian markets, according to Ismea data.

Large producers recently predicted a significant price reduction in the most important markets as the season progresses.

Many Italian producers fear prices could fall significantly in the coming months.

Such a decrease would impact margins already strained by various factors, including challenging weather, low yields, labor shortage and rising costs for milling, bottling and logistics.

David Granieri, president of the olive oil producers association Unaprol, warned that “large multinational corporations are aiming to halve the value of our green gold.

“An olive oil sold at rock-bottom prices is neither Italian nor of quality; Italian extra virgin olive oil must maintain a minimum price to protect olive growers and millers, who ensure excellent quality despite the challenges,” he said.

“The supply chain must recognize a fair value for producers: without them, there is no future for Italian extra virgin olive oil,” Granieri added.

President of Confagricoltura’s olive oil federation, Walter Placida, added that the sector must work together to protect producers of regional and less commercial varieties. 

“We cannot reduce everything to a mere algebraic calculation,” he said. “Never before has Italian oil been so rare and prestigious as in this season; never before has it deserved such recognition, especially in a season devastated in terms of production by extreme alternations and acute climatic events.”

“The true value of Italian extra virgin olive oil must be acknowledged,” Placida added. “We must pay close attention to speculation and attempts to drive prices down, calling on all stakeholders in the supply chain to act responsibly, with the support of institutions.”

The whole sector is now mobilizing to address the current situation.

Apulian farmers, producers and millers recently signed what has been dubbed the “ethical pact.”

The pact aims to ensure that all players in the production chain, starting with olive growers, receive fair income while minimizing price speculation.

The Italian government recently established the “round technical table for olive oil and table olives” with a decree from the Ministry of Agriculture, Food Sovereignty and Forestry.

Many stakeholders have welcomed the initiative, which involves national and regional government officials, public agricultural agencies and representatives from farmers, millers, bottlers and producers.

It aims to draft a comprehensive national plan outlining priorities and policies to advance the sector.

The role of large food retailers in determining olive oil prices for consumers is pivotal, and many associations are calling for improved dialogue with these key market players.

“Looking at the official data, until a few months ago, and after years of hardship, remuneration for growers reached record levels, unprecedented until now,” Carrassi said. “However, ‘underrating’ factors persist, which Assitol has been highlighting for years, chief among them being the issue of underpricing.” 

“Continuous promotions, which we have criticized for a long time, have devalued the product, treating it like any commodity and impacting the entire supply chain, which is forced to operate without fair compensation, particularly in the agricultural sector,” Carrassi warned.

He worries that these promotions have turned olive oil into another low-cost condiment in the minds of consumers.

“Thankfully, the last campaign has shifted this perspective, at least partially: we should learn from the past year and strive to ensure that olive oil is finally given the recognition it deserves, avoiding the proliferation of heavy discounts,” Carrassi said.

Olive Oil Times contacted some of the largest food retailers in Italy, but none responded before publication.

In the annual survey sent to 4,208 producers in 30 countries, farmers and millers rated the 2024/25 crop year as above-average overall. However, the impacts of climate change, volatile market prices, consumer confusion and labor challenges remained critical concerns.

Still, producers rated the current harvest 67 out of 100, a substantial improvement from last year’s rating of 51 and significantly above the average of the previous six years.

To emphasize this point, nearly 62 percent of respondents said this year’s harvest was better than last year’s, with farmers and millers rating quantity as 62, the highest rating since 2019, and quality as 82, the highest since 2021.

The 2024 OOT Harvest Score

“After two difficult years, we are incredibly thankful for a successful harvest,” said Lucia Gamez of Tropicual in Jaén, Spain. “This season brought challenges – untimely rain threatened and disrupted our plans.”

“Yet, we were fortunate,” she added. “Monitoring conditions daily, the weather granted us a small window to harvest, ensuring our early harvest at the olive’s maturity point we sought.

The 2024 Quality Score

Other producers said this year’s harvest was their best yet and are optimistic about the prospects for the next one.

“We were very pleased with the 2024 crop here in Georgia, United States,” said Ciriaco Chavez of Fresh Press Farms. “We began harvest in early September and finished in early October. This year’s crop was the best we have ever had and likely represents the largest crop ever in Georgia, and the trees are set up well for a good 2025 crop.”

Better than last year

Data from the United States Department of Agriculture (the International Olive Council has not published its official harvest forecast yet) indicate that global olive oil production is anticipated to rise to 3.1 million metric tons in 2024/25.

Despite achieving the highest yields since 2021/22, producers remain wary of the usual concerns compounded by the wide-ranging impacts of global conflicts and changing geopolitical realities.

Climate concerns remain top of mind

Once again, climate change tops the list of challenges producers face, with 58 percent calling it one of their most significant concerns.

One of the hallmarks of climate change has been the increase of extreme weather.

Across the Mediterranean basin, producers said the sudden shift from a hot and dry summer to a wet and temperate autumn impeded olive collection and, in some cases, resulted in lower oil accumulation in the olives.

Producers’ top concerns

“We are experiencing an exceptional harvest in regards to our quality and volume of fruit, but we are noticing a dramatic drop in our yields compared to previous years,” said Diamantis Pierrakos of Greek producer Laconiko.

“The heavy drought has taken a toll on the oil development in our fruit,” he added. “Although we have recently received much needed rain, it should have come much sooner.”

Overall, 53 percent of respondents said their harvests were affected by excessive heat, while 43 percent said the same of drought.

“We had plenty of olives, but they were very small in size due to drought, lowering yields and somewhat affecting the quality,” said Mehmet Taki of Bata Tartim Farm in Turkey.

The 2024 Yield Score

In general, 35 percent of farmers and millers said poor weather impacted their ability to produce olive oil, while 27 percent cited excessive rain as an issue.

“The 2024 harvest was seriously affected by excessive spring rains in 2023,” said Fernando Rotondo of Brazil-based Olivopampa. “The new fruit set (2024/25) is also affected by spring rains and a cloud of Amazon [wildfire] ashes in the environment that impeded pollination.”

Labor shortages continue to impact the harvest

While producers said excessive heat, drought, poor weather and excessive rain were the four factors most impacting their harvests this year, labor shortages were not far behind.

One-quarter of survey respondents said the lack of workers during the harvest directly impacted their operations, while 35 percent cited labor difficulties among their primary concerns.

“As my trees mature, I am getting larger and larger harvests, but I am very concerned about labor shortages in California,” said Beth McCown of Central Coast Olive Oil Company.

“We need an immigrant labor program that allows workers from other countries to enter the state and return home after completing the agricultural cycle,” she added.

Top challenges

Other producers identified labor shortages as a two-pronged problem. In addition to struggling to find enough people to pick the olives and transport them to the mill quickly, supply and demand dynamics meant producers had to pay higher wages, raising production costs.

“I am at a loss to find enough buyers this year to cover my escalating production costs,” said Lauren Clancy of Villa le Masse di San Leolino in Italy. “When we started producing oil in 2016, we paid €12 per hour for the harvest. Now we pay €20 per hour, yet the wholesale prices have not changed.”

Market prices continue to concern producers

After hitting record highs in January 2024, olive oil prices at origin are expected to fall below €5 per liter at the start of 2025.

This volatility and its impact on consumers have resulted in market prices being among the most significant concerns for 39 percent of producers, second only to climate change.

Falling prices at origin have led some producers to worry that they may be unable to cover their increasing costs.

“Our main concern is the market and pricing,” said Taki of Bata Tarim Farm. “Prices are falling like a stone discarding the increase in costs. We hope the consumption growth will come back with lower prices.”

Other producers worry that two years of unprecedentedly high olive oil prices have changed consumers’ attitudes entirely.

“In a time of economic difficulty, the high price of olive oil makes it a commodity in the discretionary spend category,” said Andrew Lilly of Juno Olives in New Zealand.

“With a poor harvest and ever-increasing costs of fertilizer, fuel, freight, etc., the cost of olive oil may price us out of the market,” he added. “As an industry, we have low returns, and as a result, olive trees are being pulled out in favor of other crops.”

Anticipated ease of selling this year’s output

Despite concerns about prices, producers were highly confident that selling this year’s production would be straightforward, rating it 72 (with zero being very difficult to sell and 100 being very easy).

Lack of consumer knowledge hurting producers

After climate change and market prices, 38 percent of producers listed consumer confusion as one of their most significant challenges.

From confusing terminology and lack of awareness about olive oil health benefits and organoleptic qualities to rampant disinformation, farmers and millers worry that olive oil education is still not breaking through at a large scale.

“Consumer education is critical to the success of the overall industry,” said Paul Durant of Oregon-based Durant Olive Mill. “Not only on the obvious, such as how to use olive oil, health benefits and how it enhances a culinary experience, but also how it is crafted, where the olives are sourced from, what the chain of custody looks like for milling operations.”

Many small-scale and traditional producers said they believe consumer ignorance about organic and high-quality extra virgin olive oil production is directly related to unwillingness to pay higher prices.

“There is great effort and success in producing high-quality olive oil, but the average consumer considers olive oil a commodity and is unwilling to pay the actual value of hand-picked, cold-pressed, small-producer products,” said Zeynep Belger of Turkey-based Zayto.

Other producers emphasized the common refrain that olive oil must follow in the footsteps of wine to maintain profitability and continue flourishing.

“Olive oil, especially when it is extra virgin or organic, is not well-known worldwide,” said Eduardo from Il Casellino in Italy. “Campaigns should be done to explain how important olive oil is for our health and how engaging and expensive it is to produce olive oil for the farmer, especially if it is organic.”

“The price must reflect all this. People are ready to spend €100 for a bottle of wine, which may last only one day and not €20 for a bottle of oil, which does a lot for our health,” he added.

Tariffs and conflict emerge as new worries in 2024

While climate, prices and consumer knowledge are perennial concerns for producers, the increasing geopolitical uncertainty of 2024 has brought new challenges for farmers and millers.

Eleven percent of respondents cited tariffs as among their most significant concerns, heightened by the election of former President Donald J. Trump in the U.S., whose previous administration implemented two sets of tariffs targeting Spanish table olives and olive oil.

A further seven percent said turmoil and conflicts, which impact consumer sentiment and supply chains (not to mention the people living through them), were among their chief worries.

“The biggest threats to our work are the labor shortage and the possibility of an escalation of the Russia-Ukraine war that will disrupt the entire global market and logistic chains,” said Julio Alves of Quinta dos Olmais.

“Smuggling from conflict zones has tainted the reputation” of olive oil, added Belger, about the smuggling of olive oil from northwestern Syria through Turkey and into Europe to be blended and resold.

Producers remain confident about the future

While producers face a range of challenges that require bespoke and difficult solutions, they generally remain optimistic about the future.

On a scale of zero (no confidence) to 100 (very confident), producers rated their confidence as 72.

The 2024 Producer Confidence Score

“The industry is growing in California, and we are part of the surge with high-quality extra virgin olive oil,” said Richard Meisler of San Miguel Olive Farm. “Our farm tours have doubled. We are looking forward to next year’s harvest for good weather and quantity.”

Other producers said they feel hopeful as they notice young and energetic new people entering the sector.

“Separately, we noted the entrepreneurial drive by two young brothers in our local town who opened a new small production facility with state-of-the-art machinery, seeking to break from tradition and produce more high-quality extra virgin olive oil,” said Gamez of Tropicual. “The industry is, therefore, definitively growing and attracting young talent.

According to Deoleo, the world’s largest olive oil bottler, the challenges driving prices to record highs are steadily decreasing. 

The company predicts that the global olive oil shortage will soon subside, as Spain is forecasted to produce between 1.3 and 1.5 million tons in the 2024/25 crop year.

Additionally, producers in Portugal and Greece anticipate strong yields. 

Outside the E.U., major olive oil producers such as Turkey and Tunisia are also gearing up for substantial harvests, with Tunisia’s output projected to reach between 340,000 and 350,000 tons. 

In this context, Italian producers’ disappointing harvest is expected to have only a marginal impact on global olive oil production. 

Speaking to CNBC, a Deoleo official acknowledged that tensions surrounding extra virgin olive oil prices have not fully subsided. 

“However, the outlook is positive for the coming months, as the market is expected to begin to stabilize and normality is expected to be gradually restored as the new harvest progresses and supply increases,” said Miguel Ángel Guzmán, Deoleo’s chief sales officer. 

Guzmán predicted that olive oil prices would drop to approximately €5 per liter, compared to the €9 seen recently in major markets.

Dusan Kaljevic, the chief executive of Filippo Berio North America, shared a similar forecast in a recent interview with Olive Oil Times.

“If the number of 3.2 million metric tons is confirmed after the first two months of harvesting, I expect that the price will go below €5 in January,” he said.

Analyzing recent price trends, the International Olive Council (IOC) reported that rising prices were observed only in Italy in October. 

Specifically, in Bari, olive oil prices rose by 5.2 percent to €915 per 100 kilograms compared to last season—well above the 2011 to 2023 average of €484. 

In contrast, prices in Jaén, Spain, fell by 9.3 percent to €732 per 100 kilograms compared with the 2011 to 2023 average of €345.5.

Similarly, in Chania, Greece, extra virgin olive oil prices declined by 13.6 percent to €665 per 100 kilograms, compared to an average of €326.4 over the previous 12 years. 

In its October short-term agricultural outlook report, the European Commission said that E.U. olive oil exports could see a strong rebound if prices fall during the current season. 

However, high production costs continue to push prices up in many producing regions and remain a key factor in determining consumers’ final sale prices. 

“After absorbing the substantial increases of the past three years, we are now witnessing a stabilization in processing costs,” Giampaolo Farchioni, owner and manager at Farchioni Olii, told Olive Oil Times.

“Another challenge lies in the widespread negative trend in extra virgin olive oil consumption over the past 12 months, affecting retail, [hospitality], food service and exports,” he added.

Over the past two years, surging olive oil prices have negatively impacted consumption.

Consumers adjusted their purchasing habits in several countries, often opting to purchase in smaller quantities or even switching to alternatives. 

Many growers and industry observers in Europe believe the effects of climate change exacerbated the olive oil shortages of the last two seasons. 

“This season is another complex season as the quantity of olives in Puglia is very low, it did not rain for months and the farmland without irrigation is going to produce terrible results,” said Lucia Di Molfetta, co-owner of the Apulian producer Di Molfetta Pantaleo. “The price of olives is still very high, while this last week olive oil prices are dropping.”

“This season is another season that we are going to remember,” she added. “With climate change impacting like that, many more seasons like this we are going to see.”

Deoleo and Filippo Berio acknowledge climate change as a significant challenge for the industry. 

“It has been identified as an existential threat to the industry,” said Guzmán, emphasizing the need for the sector to adapt to “an increasingly uncertain future.”

According to Brussels’ recently published agricultural short-term outlook, olive oil production across the European Union is expected to increase by 32 percent compared to last season.

This rise will bring the estimated total yield for the upcoming season to two million tons. In contrast, 2023/24 saw production drop to 1.53 million tons, with 1.39 million tons recorded in 2022/23.

Spain is set to be the most significant contributor, with a forecasted yield of 1.3 million tons, though experts in the country said production may reach up to 1.45 million tons.

Meanwhile, Portugal and Greece are expected to increase olive oil production.

Conversely, Italy is expected to face a significant downturn, with its production forecasted to drop by one-third.

Starting stock levels for 2023/24 fell to 410,000 tons, down from 671,000 tons in the previous year. As the new season begins, stock levels have dropped to 350,000 tons.

Nonetheless, the E.U. anticipates that stockpiles will recover to more than 600,000 tons by the season’s end, aligning with average historical levels.

The expected surge in olive oil availability is likely to influence prices.

Olive oil prices have only slightly decreased since their peak in January 2024, reflecting expectations for a bountiful harvest.

For example, according to the E.U.‘s Agriculture and Rural Development Department, extra virgin olive oil prices in Spain fell from €9.03 per kilogram to €7.43.

Still, this remains significantly higher than the five-year average of €5.05 per kilogram.

High prices have also impacted exports. E.U. olive oil exports started to decline during 2022/23, showing only slight signs of recovery by the end of 2023.

Between October 2023 and July 2024, exports were down 1.3 percent compared to the previous season and 26 percent lower than in 2021/22. However, a ten percent rise in exports is anticipated for the new season.

Imports, on the other hand, are expected to drop by seven percent.

Despite this, solid yields and competitive prices in Tunisia and Turkey could shift the outlook as the season progresses. In the last season, E.U. olive oil imports rose by 30 percent, with 62 percent coming from Tunisia and 14 percent from Turkey.

The short-term outlook report also highlighted considerable uncertainty in the market, particularly regarding the rate of price decline and its effect on consumers.

Some consumers have either reduced their use of olive oil or stopped purchasing it entirely due to high prices.

According to the E.U., with prices still elevated, olive oil consumption is expected to drop by one percent further, leaving it 23 percent lower than in 2021/22.

However, if prices at origin continue to decrease and those reductions are passed on to consumers, overall consumption in the E.U. could rebound by as much as seven percent.

E.U. data show that consumption in Spain, Italy, Portugal and Greece could almost reach 987,000 tons in 2024/25, up from the 923,000 tons of the previous season.

• E.U. Agriculture and Rural Development Department