The study, published by the International Journal of Climatology, focused on Italy to understand the factors triggering multi-year drought phenomena.

“Even if these phenomena can be considered cyclical and typical in the region, they now tend to last longer, their intensity is increasing and their impacts are broader,” Salvatore Pascale, a researcher at the University of Bologna’s department of physics and astronomy, told Olive Oil Times.

The scientists defined a widespread multi-year drought as an event lasting more than 12 months, often extending over two or three years.

To measure these conditions, the authors relied on the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), which considers precipitation and moisture loss due to evapotranspiration. Evapotranspiration occurs when water evaporates from water bodies and soil and is transpired by plants.

A widespread multi-year drought begins when it affects at least 30 percent of Italian territory (SPEI +1) and ends when more than 70 percent returns to near-normal conditions (SPEI ‑1).

The study focused on events over the last 123 years in Italy.

“We found that such events frequently impact more than 30 percent of the territory,” Pascale said. “In most cases, these droughts affected nearly the entire country, reaching about 60 to 70 percent of Italy during their peak.” 

Even the most recent intense widespread multi-year drought involved large areas of Italy. “One might assume the warmer south is most affected, but that’s not the case,” Pascale said.

When droughts persist, they worsen conditions in areas already impacted by accelerating evapotranspiration.

“Temperature is the primary factor influencing this process,” Pascale said. “Other factors like wind also matter, but temperature is dominant. Surface temperatures are rising due to global warming, causing a decline in available surface water and soil moisture.”

The loss of soil moisture directly impacts agriculture and soil fertility.

“Considering soil moisture loss alone, droughts are clearly becoming more severe, with longer-lasting consequences,” Pascale said.

The researchers emphasized how temperature has become as critical as rainfall in shaping drought dynamics. While rainfall volumes have not decreased, the capacity of soil and vegetation to retain water has significantly declined due to rising evaporative demand.

Currently, rainfall volumes have a limited impact in a rapidly changing scenario.

“We observe worsening extreme events becoming more intense and frequent,” said Pascale, specifying that overall rainfall volumes remain relatively stable.

“Instead, temperatures continue rising, accelerating the depletion of surface water,” he added.

In Italy, higher temperatures also shorten the snow season. Alpine snow accumulation is reduced and melts earlier than in the past.

“The mountain water we historically relied upon in summer is increasingly unavailable. The buffering role of snow and water storage historically played by Italy’s mountains is diminishing,” Pascale said.

Reduced snow also means critical rivers for agriculture, such as the Po River, may no longer provide sufficient water to regions heavily dependent on farming.

“The aggressiveness of the widespread multi-year drought event from 2021 to 2023 was astonishing. The Po River reached levels never recorded in the last 200 years,” Pascale said.

The study highlights that recent drought severity results from persistent weather patterns maintaining high-pressure systems over Europe, blocking precipitation.

Widespread multi-year drought events in Italy originate from specific atmospheric circulation patterns, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO).

“The persistence of the positive phase of the NAO results in less rainfall over the Mediterranean, as Atlantic storm systems are pushed toward the northeast, toward Scotland and Scandinavia.”

“Some of these conditions persist over Europe for extended periods, sometimes recurring multiple times within two or three years,” he added.

In such scenarios, widespread multi-year droughts occur predominantly under anticyclonic conditions, characterized by higher-than-average temperatures and reduced rainfall.

“These phenomena reflect normal atmospheric variability and are not driven by global warming,” Pascale said. “Understanding if and how global warming influences atmospheric circulation dynamics is very challenging; climate models on this topic remain unreliable.”

“Global warming means the climate retains more energy, causing temperatures to rise, a thermodynamic reality,” Pascale added. 

“Rainfall, however, depends not only on thermodynamics but also on dynamics such as wind patterns,” he continued. “Rainfall forms when winds converge, accumulating humidity. That accumulated water must then be released as precipitation.” 

According to the researcher, volumes dependent on wind and circulation dynamics are more complex than temperature-driven changes.

“That means we need significantly more time and further warming to observe clear trends,” Pascale said.

The authors cross-checked data from two distinct climate datasets to strengthen their findings and utilized precipitation-only and combined indices.

This approach helps address regional data discrepancies and enhances confidence in the study’s conclusions.

What researchers do know for sure, however, is that droughts will become more severe, with increasingly harsh impacts on affected areas.

“This means wise, innovative and dynamic management of water resources becomes crucial. Not only for populations and agriculture but also for industry, which consumes approximately 30 percent of potable water,” Pascale said.

Climatologists are not yet capable of reliably predicting widespread multi-year drought events. However, extensive research is underway to develop trustworthy seasonal forecast models.

“We foresee a future where seasonal forecasts become reliable enough to predict when widespread multi-year droughts will start,” Pascale said. “We have short-term forecasts, which we use daily, and long-term climate projections spanning decades or even centuries.” 

“In between are seasonal forecasts, such as projections made in April for the upcoming summer,” he added. “These forecasts account for predictable and slowly evolving climate factors, like El Niño events, triggered by warming Pacific Ocean waters.”

The goal is forecasting weather three to six months in advance.

“However, these models are not yet reliable, with high levels of uncertainty. The good news is that extensive research is underway, highlighting their potential importance in our rapidly changing climate,” Pascale said.

Predicting widespread multi-year drought would enhance the ability of countries to adapt.

“Adaptation is essential because we are already experiencing climate change. In many sectors, adaptation is our only viable response, necessitating measures to mitigate drought impacts,” Pascale said.

“But adaptation doesn’t solve the root problem. True mitigation of global warming requires dramatically reducing or even eliminating greenhouse gas emissions,” he added.

“Should humanity ever achieve this goal, it will still take considerable time. Meanwhile, adaptation, alongside developing more reliable seasonal forecasts, remains our best strategy,” Pascale concluded.

Brothers Clifford and Charles Graber founded Graber Olive House after buying land and planting olive trees in Ontario, California, 60 kilometers east of downtown Los Angeles, in 1892.

The brothers completed their first harvest two years later and began canning tree-ripened olives in 1910.

During the 20th century, the company steadily expanded distribution from southern California to the rest of the U.S. and other foreign markets.

In 2020, Ontario unanimously named the original house where the company was founded as a historical landmark.

Award-winning actress Lucille Ball and the host of the eponymous Late Night with Jimmy Fallon are known fans.

“My wife loves these olives,” Fallon told millions of viewers in a May 2020 segment while he displayed a gift box of Graber Olives given to his wife, film producer Nany Juvonen Fallon, by his father.

Champion golfer Tom Watson even cited Graber Olives as one of the highlights of the Masters at Augusta National, which he won in 1977 and 1981.

“The food is always good, especially the cornbreads and the Graber olives,” he told Golf Magazine in a 2021 interview. “You can buy them in the can. They’re great.”

Until 2023, the company harvested up to 50 to 60 U.S. tons (45 to 54 metric tons) of olives annually, enough for more than 100,000 cans.

However, Graber Olive House produced less than half of this amount in 2022, the last year the company canned olives.

According to the United States Department of Agriculture, 2022 was the second-lowest harvest since 2010, with the Golden State producing just 19,900 U.S. tons (18,050 metric tons) of table olives.

Table olive production has declined in California over the past 15 years. Between 2010 and 2014, the Golden State produced 82,700 U.S. tons (75,000 metric tons) of table olives annually. Production declined to 68,520 U.S. tons (62,160 metric tons) from 2015 to 2019, falling even further to 33,490 U.S. tons (30,381 metric) from 2020 to 2024.

USDA officials and olive farmers point to the profound impacts of California’s drought from the late 2010s to early 2020s, extreme spring weather events, increased production costs and challenges finding enough workers as the main reasons for declining table olive production.

Current owner Maura Graber told The New York Times that California’s drought significantly affected the company’s decline.

“We had to buy extra water,” she said. “We had to pay three times as much on the ranch to keep things alive. We just had to make tough choices.”

One of these difficult decisions was selling the drought-stricken orchards to longtime manager Jay Zike. While Zike said he continues to grow the olives the way the family has for over a century, he now sells to other clients.

Fierce infighting further impacted the family, resulting in an expensive lawsuit and settlement shortly before the start of the Covid-19 pandemic.

The combination of the legal costs and the failed harvest in 2023 caused the company’s cans to disappear from supermarkets and its own stores. The Grabers had already stopped selling olives to brokers who distributed them internationally after poor harvests in 2021 and 2022.

“We barely had enough to make it through [2021 and 2022],” Graber said. “We were having a real hard time keeping up. This was something we knew was a slippery slope.”

Now, she fears the end might come when a $1.55 (€1.51) million emergency loan, on top of the thousands of dollars owed in past-due bills and expired licenses, comes due in March.

In a last-ditch effort to save the brand, the Grabers are selling the cannery for $3 (€2.9) million. They hope to pay off the debt and use some of the remaining money to lease the property and keep producing.

“People all over the world have enjoyed Graber olives,” co-owner Cliff Graber told The New York Times. “Right now, we are ready to get going. We’re looking forward to the next olive season, and we’re ready to rock.”

• The New York Times
• Redlands Daily Facts

According to preliminary estimates from the International Olive Council, Morocco will produce 90,000 metric tons of olive oil in the 2024/25 crop year, significantly below the five-year average of 141,600 tons.

“Morocco is facing a severe drought that has lasted for six years now,” a local farmer who declined to be identified told Olive Oil Times. “This prolonged dry period has caused significant challenges for our agricultural sector, affecting crop yields and water availability.”

According to Rachid Benali, the Moroccan Interprofessional Olive Federation president, “various climatic fluctuations” are responsible for the country’s ongoing production issues. “The problem is not limited to drought,” he told news agency Bladi.

Other producers in the country confirmed that high temperatures also resulted in smaller olive yields than in previous years.

“The production of a single olive tree compared to the previous year has decreased by about half, affecting the amount of oil extracted from these low harvests,” Mustapha Jabri, the owner of a mill in central Morocco, told Belpresse.

The drastic production decline has led to soaring local prices, which the Moroccan government has addressed by suspending import duties on extra virgin olive oil and introducing export regulations through specific licenses.

The ministry forecasted that prices could rise to 150 dirhams (€14) per liter, up from 90 to 100 dirhams (€8.60 to €9.55) at the start of the harvest. Data analyzed by Lloyds Bank showed that the average monthly salary in Morocco is 1,793 dirhams (€171).

Local consumer protection groups are also concerned that rising olive oil prices will attract more speculation.

“The intervention of intermediaries before and after the harvest, aimed at monopolizing the market, has amplified the rise in prices,” Bouazza Kherrati, president of the Moroccan Federation of Consumer Rights, told Hespress.

Meanwhile, Ali Chtour, the president of the Moroccan Association for the Defense of Consumer Rights, worries that higher prices will increase olive oil fraud.

He called on the government to increase controls on olive oil imports. “The climate crisis must not become a pretext for speculative practices that harm citizens,” he told Agrimaroc.

According to the IOC, Morocco has consumed an average of 148,000 tons of olive oil annually in the last five years and is forecasted to consume 140,000 tons in 2024/25.

As a result, the ministry announced plans to allow 30,000 tons of virgin and extra virgin olive oil imports in 2024 and 2025 to help stabilize prices, with shipments expected to come from Brazil, Italy, Spain, Tunisia and Turkey.

Meanwhile, olive farmers are worried that low production could cause consumers to turn to olive oil alternatives if there is a significant shortage. As a result, they welcomed the announcement of more imports but lamented that the decision had not been made sooner.

“The ministry is tirelessly working to find solutions, implement water-saving techniques, and support our farmers. But it’s an uphill battle,” the local farmer added. “The stress is palpable across the nation as we grapple with these unprecedented conditions and strive to ensure food security and sustainable agricultural practices.”

• SNRT News
• Belpresse
• Agrimaroc

This occurred in the complex context of climate change and its effects, in which the water crisis plays a key role.

Experts committed to restoring the affected ecosystems are working quickly to find solutions for sustainable water management while raising awareness among people and institutions.

“In the current climate crisis with its many facets, one of the most pressing issues is water availability,” said Massimiliano Pasqui, a physicist at the Institute for BioEconomy of the National Research Council (IBE-CNR).

“Generally, in the Mediterranean area, we observed increased winter temperatures and very hot temperatures not only at the peak of summer but also in spring or fall,” he added. “In this framework, when we should have the greatest rainfall amounts in fall and winter, a decline in precipitation is emerging.”

Dry periods are sometimes interrupted by abundant but intense rainfall where most water runs off. These events may cause flooding while failing to alleviate drought.

The IBE-CNR Drought Observatory noted that water scarcity negatively impacts agricultural yield and quality and triggers soil degradation and desertification, influencing plants’ carbon sequestration capacity.

“In several Mediterranean regions, the incidence of severe drought has risen,” Pasqui said. “This can affect the work of farmers, with repercussions on production costs and market trends.”

“Overall, the water crisis has a major environmental and social impact,” he added. “Hence, there is a need to raise collective awareness and, on the practical side, implement appropriate agronomic practices.”

While each citizen can play an important part in implementing these swift changes, experts broadly agree that a wide range of actions should be undertaken collectively to tackle the water crisis effectively.

“There is not a single solution, but a set of measures that should be planned and implemented at a community level, given the seriousness of the water situation globally,” said Matteo Mancini.

As an agronomist, he coordinates the technical area of the non-profit and non-governmental organization Deafal, which supports farmers by applying agroecology and regenerative agriculture tools.

“The Mediterranean basin is one of the climate change hotspots, and the olive tree is among the crops that are suffering the most and potentially most at risk in this area,” he said. “When it comes to producing oil, this plant needs an adequate water quantity, from around 350 to 800 millimeters per year.”

“Note that the annual rainfall of an area with limited precipitation, such as the Mediterranean, can range between 400 and 800 milliliters, but there is a risk of further decrease,” Mancini added. “Hence, we should develop solutions whereby rainwater is retained as much as possible in the ground. Soil regeneration can be pivotal to achieving this in the short term.”

Research has demonstrated that healthy soil is key to tackling the interlocked climate and water crisis, so major international organizations are calling on governments to take action on this issue.

The United Nations has estimated that one cubic meter of soil can store more than 250 liters of water and remarked that, after the oceans, soil is the largest active carbon store.

Yet, it could capture and store more if human activities did not degrade it. Therefore, its restoration is crucial since it produces rapid results, is inexpensive, creates jobs and enables people to ensure food security.

“Regenerating soil benefits not only the agriculture sector but the whole community,” Mancini said. “Every farmer can immediately start doing it by implementing a real agronomic plan.”

Mancini believes that improving soil’s organic fertility by increasing its organic matter content is a fundamental step in starting a regenerative project.

“Organic matter consists in the degradation product of plant and animal components that come from outside the soil, like animal manure, stubbles and plant residues, olive leaves, twigs and more,” he explained.

“Microorganisms degrade this matter, transforming a small part of it into something extremely valuable called humus,” Mancini added. “The literature says that one kilogram of humus may retain 20 liters of water.”

According to data from CNR and the National Association of Consortia for Land and Irrigation Water Management and Protection, the organic matter content in most Italian soils is two percent, below which a process of desertification may start.

Moreover, the E.U. Joint Research Center warned that “a staggering 61 percent” of European soils are in an unhealthy state, subject to several types of degradation, including loss of organic carbon.

“Organic matter, or carbon, has a fundamental role,” Mancini underlined. “It is full of life, as it contains organisms like fungi, bacteria, actinomycetes and more; it retains mineral elements responsible for chemical fertility, namely food for plants; and it holds water. The literature says that a one percent increase in organic matter is enough to make a hectare of land hold 300,000 liters more water.”

There are multiple ways to increase organic matter on a farm. Mancini suggested that one is to minimize tillage.

“Tillage oxidizes carbon, resulting in greater soil respiration,” Mancini said. “Respiration is a natural process of releasing carbon dioxide from the soil to the atmosphere.”

“Yet, increased oxidation translates into greater carbon loss and, therefore, fertility in the long term,” he added. “Reducing tillage in an orchard helps to preserve and gradually increase its organic carbon content.”

Mancini observed that in some areas, grassless olive orchards are easily found plowed in depth by farmers to avoid competition for water between the roots of olive trees and those of weeds.

“We must consider that organic matter accumulates in the upper topsoil, called in pedology ‘O horizon,’ where ‘O’ is for ‘organic,’” he said. “Although competition may occur, without grassy cover, this is exposed to air, light, wind and water, and subject to degradation.”

“Therefore, to avoid competition while maintaining protection, a strip tillage can be useful, consisting in narrow strips of land, even in alternating rows in the case of an olive grove, which should be lightly tilled,” Mancini added.

According to Mancini, another way to increase organic matter is to let spontaneous plants grow or plant cover crops.

Different species and families are used to fix nitrogen – legumes are the most common – one of the most essential elements for the olive tree and graminaceous plants. After choosing the most suitable types, they can be grown in rotation with other crops, where necessary.

“These crops must be properly managed to obtain the best results,” Mancini said. “Research found that the method applied by many farmers, which consists of cutting the cover crops and plowing into the ground, is not helpful since the organic matter accumulated during the plant growth is mineralized and lost immediately once in the soil.”

“In the last decade, Deafal and other organizations have promoted a different technique that helps to retain more moisture and carbon,” he added. “It consists of flattening the cover crops down with a roller-crimper so that they slowly die and dehydrate, acting as natural mulching.”

Mancini added that fertilization is another way to bring organic matter into a plot from outside.

“In the past, farmers used animal manure, which is still a great option,” Mancini said. “Today, we can also use compost, which is available in large quantities and can be self-produced and digestate.”

“Among recently developed products, biochar is a very stable form of carbon that enhances soil’s structure,” he added. “If appropriately used, all these products help to improve the soil health significantly.”

With the IESS project, Deafal and CNR-IBE are assessing the positive impacts of grazing laying hens in the olive grove.

Both ruminants, such as cows and sheep, and poultry are helpful in the orchard, significantly contributing to the soil health with their manure.

Based on the study of the sward and bearing capacity, this research organizes rational grazing plans to maximize the positive effects of this agroecological practice.

“An important phase to consider is planning a new orchard,” Mancini said. “Applying the keyline design can be a useful strategy to mitigate drought and erosion.”

Deafal and CNR-IBE studied the benefits of this hydraulic agriculture system. It harnesses the force of gravity of slight slopes to slow down the water runoff and distribute it from areas with a higher erosion risk towards those suffering from low water permanence.

After a topographical survey, a cultivation pattern is designed according to the keylines, which intercept the water flow with proper agronomic management.

“Many farmers and agro-technicians report water and fertility improvements with this system,” Mancini said. “However, these results can only be achieved by combining them with further soil management practices previously mentioned.”

“We must be aware that this is a complex crisis, and there is a need for several integrated interventions, combining various disciplines and skills,” he added. “There is not a unique response to the challenges posed. The water crisis must be addressed at various levels, and the whole production system, starting from policymakers, must become more aware and organized to tackle it effectively.”

• United Nations

A hot and dry summer followed by heavy rainfall complicated the harvest for producers and resulted in millers reporting disappointing conversion yields.

“The quality of the produced olive oil is outrageous,” said Rudolf Nemetschke, co-owner of Avistria. “The oil is very fruity and has an intensive ‘green’ color and taste – green tomato, herbs, green leaves. The quality is the best in ten years.”

Avistria produces extra virgin olive oil in Sveti Lovrec, in the heart of Istria, the large peninsula in the northern Adriatic Sea. The company cultivates almost 10,000 trees over 35 hectares.

“The milling percentages were disastrous this year,” Nemetschke explained, referring to the conversion yields.

Meanwhile, fellow Istrian producer Mili Kus, owner of Olivo Monte Cucco, said the 2024/25 crop year had been the most difficult yet due to the summer heat and drought followed by weeks of heavy rain.

“Looking at the first rainfall, one could have hoped it could benefit the harvest. But, apart from some additional coloration on the olives, it did not happen,” Kus said. “Such heavy rainfall ended up impacting the ripening process of the fruits. It just stopped.”

“Heavy rainfall also impacted the soil, which made harvesting way more difficult as mud was all over,” she added. “Still, I believe the olive oil quality this year is out of this world.”

The hot and dry summer, followed by torrential rains in the autumn, complicated the harvest for regional producers.

“Our Buza olive oil had a percentage of 5.4 percent,” Nemetschke remarked, referring to the conversion yield, determined by how many kilograms of olive oil are produced from 100 kilograms of fruits.

“The numbers for Istarska Bjelica and Leccino were better, with the average number being approximately 8.5 percent,” Nemetschke said. “Such numbers are not satisfying, although low numbers were expected due to the summer heat wave.”

“We fear a clear price increase of extra virgin olive oil in Istria, as all producers have more or less the same situation,” he added.

Croatia produced about 3,500 tons of olive oil in the 2023/24 crop year. According to European Union data, Croatia has produced an average of 3,800 tons annually over the past decade.

“The extreme summer drought and exceptionally high temperatures were not favorable for pests, and as a result, the olive fruit fly was not observed at all this year,” said Tedi Chiavalon, co-owner of OPG Chiavalon.

“Those conditions led to an extremely healthy crop and incredible quality of extra virgin olive oils, not just on our estate but across the entire region,” he added.

Chiavalon’s family groves include approximately 9,000 olive trees covering more than 30 hectares in the Vodnjan area of Istria. He confirmed that conversion yields were extremely low.

“Such low yields have not been recorded in recent history, and despite a good harvest, the total production of olive oil in Istria will ultimately be lower than usual,” Chiavalon said.

“Due to the exceptionally high temperatures during the summer and the prolonged dry period without rain, we expected slightly lower yields, but not to the extent we witnessed in the end,” he added.

According to data from the Croatian government, the country boasts about 20,000 hectares of olive groves, almost half of which correspond to native varieties. The majority of Croatian olive oil production comes from small family-owned farms.

The National Bureau of Statistics’ latest report noted that in 2024, more than half of the olive oil consumed in the country was imported.

In October, average extra virgin olive oil prices in the country were still rising, up to €14 per liter.

“The biggest challenge this season was the drought that affected certain parts of the island and the surrounding areas,” said Josipa Visković, the event and communication manager at OPG Seca. “In some areas, it did not rain for almost five months, which has threatened the survival of this year’s fruit.”

OPG Seca is an award-winning olive farm located on the island of Hvar, off the Dalmatian coast, where it cultivates about 1,000 olive trees.

“Given the impossibility of irrigation and the unavailability of a dedicated water infrastructure, we are impacted by climatic conditions that threaten the olive trees with drying,” Visković said.

“Nevertheless, nature has blessed us with rain at the crucial and very last moment, so the olives were successfully saved, and the oil managed to develop in the fruit,” she added.

Visković stressed the high quality of the olive oil, celebrated in a traditional end-of-harvest event that is part of the company’s many activities to promote the island’s olive oil culture.

According to several growers on the Mediterranean island, this drop can be attributed to last winter’s unusually mild temperatures. At the same time, the persistent drought across the region continues to pose a threat.

“The reality is that we’ve seen a drastic decline in production, although it is at least offset by the quality of the extra virgin olive oil we’ve managed to produce,” said Maria Grazia Spanò from Buccheri, in the southeastern corner of the island, where she cultivates Tonda Iblea, Biancolilla and Moresca olives at Vernèra farm.

“This year, we began harvesting in the last ten days of September, starting with a yield of nine percent, which increased to about 13 percent in the first ten days of October and reached 15 percent in the following days,” Spanò noted.

“However, after heavy rains starting on October 20th, yields dropped to 13 percent,” she added. “Even so, this is an excellent result since we are generally used to achieving yields of only seven, eight or ten percent.”

Producers in western Sicily, including Antonella Titone, who cultivates Cerasuola, Nocellara del Belice, Biancolilla, Coratina and Frantoio olives between Trapani and Marsala, reported similar experiences.

“The average yield this year was 14.8 percent, taking into account that certain varieties like Biancolilla yielded around ten percent, while Cerasuola performed better,” she explained.

“At the time of harvest, the olives were healthy and plump, thanks in part to emergency irrigation,” Titone added. “However, we faced a sharp decline in volumes due to the warm winter.”

She attributed this to the lack of chilling units the trees received during winter.

“There was essentially no winter,” she said. “As a result, the olive trees didn’t enter their usual vegetative rest, and in spring, very few buds formed, leading to significantly lower production levels. This issue was widespread across the region.”

“Fortunately, higher-than-usual yields saved our season, along with the high quality of the products we obtained,” Titone added.

Producers in the inland areas also expressed similar concerns, especially regarding the lack of rainfall.

“Drought remains a major issue here, and even the heavy rains we’ve experienced in recent weeks haven’t fully alleviated the dryness,” said Paolo Miceli, co-founder of Miceli & Sensat in Monreale, near Palermo, where he cultivates Nocellara del Belice, Biancolilla, Cerasuola, Arbequina and Picual olives.

“I believe this played a significant role in the 60 percent drop in production we’ve recorded,” Miceli said. “We also observed lower yields, starting around ten percent early in the harvest, which slightly increased to 11 percent as operations progressed.”

“On the bright side, the olive fruit fly was practically absent due to the prolonged heat waves,” he added. “Despite all the challenges, we’ve produced extra virgin olive oils of exceptionally high quality.”

On the island’s southwestern coast, in Menfi, yields were higher for Carmen Bonfante, producer of the extra virgin olive oil brand Embrace in the province of Agrigento.

Unlike many others, she achieved good production volumes from her Nocellara del Belice, Biancolla and Cerasuola trees.

“In terms of quantity, it was a good year for this area, resulting in an excellent product,” Bonfante reported. “I attribute this success to our dedication in the groves, where we implemented an irrigation system to counteract the drought.”

“Typically, my average yield is around 12 percent, but this year,” she concluded. “I managed to reach an impressive 16 percent. This makes up for last year when yields were quite low.”

The Peloponnese peninsula, a hub of the country’s olive oil industry, has experienced dry and hotter-than-usual weather throughout 2024.

As a result, olive harvesting has been postponed in certain producing regions across the peninsula, with farmers waiting for a shift to cooler and wetter weather in the hope of more olive oil accumulation.

The dry weather has significantly affected the olive trees, particularly in Messenia, in the southern Peloponnese, resulting in low olive oil accumulation.

“In many cases, 100 percent of the production is damaged in our area,” the agricultural association of Chandrinos from western Messenia said in an announcement. “And it gets worse as the drought and heat continue.”

The association also called on the Greek government to compensate the afflicted olive farmers in the area.

More farmers and millers across Messenia, one of the country’s most bountiful olive oil-producing regions, face the repercussions of dry weather and high temperatures this crop year.

“The harvested olives crack irregularly when transported for milling due to the high temperatures in the area in the last six months,” olive farmer and mill owner Yiannis Panagopoulos from the town of Filiatra on the region’s western coast told Olive Oil Times.

“So, the local farmers have ceased harvesting until some cold weather sets in to bring the olives down to normal temperatures,” he added.

Some olive farmers in the region also reported that olive tree branches are susceptible to cracking during harvest due to the lack of sap in the trees.

In the neighboring Laconia region, the harvest has also been halted in some areas due to the minimal oil quantity of olive yields.

The hot and dry weather has also impacted olive oil production in Achaia in the western Peloponnese.

“The olives are very thin and wrinkled,” said local farmer Yiannis Bodiotis. “The harvest is scheduled to begin after November 15th, and we are hoping for some rain until then. Production is down by 50 percent, but it is nothing like last year’s disastrous crop.”

Across the Aegean Sea on the island of Lesbos, the third-largest island in the country and another traditional Greek olive oil-producing region, harvest and milling of the olives has also been temporarily suspended in some areas.

“We expected our olive oil crop to be six times larger than last year, similar to the crops we had 20 years ago,“ farmer and miller Vasilios Kokkinoforos from the eastern village of Moria told state-owned ERT channel. “However, the lack of rain in the last few months in our area has largely impacted the quantity of the season’s olive oil.”

“Watering the olive trees is difficult to apply in our area since the terrain on our island is semi-mountainous,” he added.

On Crete, the olive trees located in the eastern part of the island are also significantly affected by the long-lasting dry weather conditions.

“It has been almost a year since the last rains fell in our area,” said Maria Sgourou, co-owner of the award-winning Skoutari Olive Oil from Sitia. “Our olive groves are irrigated, but we still had to work twice as hard to get the quality we were looking for in our olive oils this year.”

“However, most of the olive trees in our area are not irrigated, and they have great difficulties coping with the prolonged dry weather despite their natural tolerance to drought,” she added. “The situation is better in our hometown in Kritsa, but it gets worse as we move towards the village of Kavoussi, where the trees are almost devastated.”

“Climate change has made its presence felt more than ever now,” Sgourou noted. “This winter will be critical; we need cold and rainy weather for our trees to survive.”

According to the association of Cretan Olive Municipalities (SEDIK), the situation is better in the western parts of the island near Chania, where some rain fell in September.

However, in central Crete, the local authorities of Heraklion have announced that the season’s olive oil yield is expected to be lower than initially expected due to the enduring drought.

Meanwhile, reduced olive tree fruition due to drought is not eligible for compensation from ELGA, the Greek organization of agricultural insurance. Olive farmers and olive oil producers from across the country are asking for an amendment in the organization’s regulations to include damage caused by drought.

• SEDIK
• Agro24
• The Best

According to the official harvest estimate released by the Turkish National Olive and Olive Oil Council (UZZK), the season’s olive oil production will exceed the 421,000 metric tons produced in 2022/23.

“An olive oil harvest of 475,000 tons is estimated,” UZZK president Mustafa Tan said. “This also surpasses the record of 421,000 tons two years ago in 2022/23.”

“Our country is making a great breakthrough in olive cultivation,” he added. “In 2022/23, it ranked second in the world after Spain. There was a drought in Spain in those years. Our country was more fortunate, but this year, our country showed that it was not a coincidence. In this sense, we are very happy.”

Should the official production estimate come to fruition, and with other significant Mediterranean producers such as Italy and Greece expecting low to moderate yields, Turkey is also likely to reposition itself as the second-largest olive oil producer in the world behind Spain.

However, despite the predicted record crop, Tan noted that the prolonged dry weather prevailing in the county has cast doubt on the Turkish olive oil sector.

“While we should have been very happy this year, unfortunately, there is great pessimism in the sector because rainfall has never been this late,” he said. “Every day [the producers] wait, they worry whether the olives will disappear or go back.”

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) office in Turkey’s capital, Ankara, confirmed that the country’s olive oil producers are on track for a bumper yield, albeit mostly those with irrigated olive groves.

“Production and export expectations are quite high,” the office’s agriculturist specialist, Kubilay Karabina, told Olive Oil Times. “However, due to the dry summer months, it is said that small producers, especially those who do not have irrigation facilities, will encounter a yield below expectations.”

Karabina added that the prices of the season’s olive oils will be shaped mainly by factors such as the quality of the fresh oils and the production costs in Turkey.

“Depending on the quality, prices are expected to soften in dollar terms after harvest,” he said. “However, high labor costs will prevent a downward shift in prices. As of now, no problems that would negatively affect total quality have been reported to us.”

Producers across Turkey are also anticipating a bountiful crop in the year ahead. However, some expect the national olive oil yield to be lower than the record harvest estimate from UZZK.

“We expect a significantly better olive oil harvest this year compared to the previous season,” said Can Candeger, a manager partner at Artem Oliva from Izmir, one of Turkey’s largest olive oil producers and exporters.

“While harvest has started slowly in the southeast, the full harvest will commence in early November,” he added. “Our initial estimates suggest a potential increase of around 40 percent in yield compared to last year, with an expected total of about 300,000 tons across Turkey.”

In the previous 2023/24 crop year, squeezed between the 2022/23 harvest and the record-forecasted 2024/25 harvest, Turkey followed the trend of reduced yields across the Mediterranean basin with an overall production of about 200,000 tons.

Candeger also noted that, due to the favorable growing conditions and the absence of olive pests in most producing regions, the quality of the season’s fresh olive oils is expected to improve considerably this year compared to the previous one.

Ayvalik, a significant olive oil-producing region on Turkey’s northwestern Aegean coast and home to two million olive trees, is expected to produce a bountiful olive oil crop this season. However, the absence of rainfall in the area has become a critical factor in determining the final yields.

“The quantity of olive oil will substantially increase this year,” said Mustafa Kürlek of Köklü Zeytincilik, an olive oil and table olive producer in the region’s Kaz Mountains.

“But the rains have not yet come,” he added. “As a result, the olives are substantially wrinkled now. Should the rains not fall, there will be a significant decrease in edible olives, resulting in more olives being channeled to olive oil production. In the end, more olive oil will be available on the market.”

Kürlek also determined that Turkey’s national olive oil production in 2024/25 will likely double compared to the previous year and total around 400,000 tons.

Across Turkey, the pattern of this year’s expected olive oil yield varies from region to region due to the lingering drought in much of the country.

A bountiful harvest is expected in some producing regions, including the southern province of Kilis, where production is expected to increase to 10,000 tons of olive oil from 6,000 tons last year.

However, some other areas, such as the Edremit Gulf in the northwest, are facing a smaller crop than initially expected due to insufficient autumn rain.

Meanwhile, the record production expected in Turkey in 2024/25 has also sparked ambitions for record olive oil exports from the country this year, particularly after the export ban on Turkish bulk olive oil exports has been completely lifted.

“The historical yield obliges us to break historical records in exports,” said Mehmet Emre Uygun, the chairman of the Aegean Olive and Olive Oil Exporters’ Association (EZZIB).

Uygun added that the association’s target for the 2024/25 season is to increase Turkish olive exports to 200,000 tons. According to EZZIB, Turkish olive oil exports amounted to 65,000 tons in the previous 2023/24 year.

“In the next five-year term, we will day and night ramp up our annual exports to $1.5 billion (€1.39 billion),” he said.

• Anadolu Agency
• Son Muhur
• Turkish Agrinews

Once again, the changing climate is severely affecting Italian olive oil production. Officials have confirmed that the 2024/25 crop year will suffer a significant drop in output.

According to a new report from the Italian Institute of Services for the Agricultural and Food Market (Ismea), total production is estimated to drop between 215,000 and 235,000 tons.

A slightly more cautious estimate from the Italian Association of the Edible Oil Industry (Assitol) predicted a yield of just 200,000 tons.

By comparison, Ismea reported that the 2023/24 crop year yielded more than 328,000 tons, 32 percent higher than the expected output for the upcoming season. Ismea noted that the average production over the last five seasons has been 307,000 tons.

Given these figures, Ismea warned that Italy risks dropping from second to fifth place among the world’s top olive oil producers.

Both Ismea and Assitol have attributed the production decline primarily to prolonged drought, particularly affecting southern regions.

Additionally, they noted that this year is primarily an ‘off-year’ in the natural alternate-bearing cycle of olive trees.

Yields are expected to vary significantly across the country, with northern and central regions less affected by unfavorable weather.

Ismea projects that Tuscany, Lazio and Umbria will see production rebounds of more than 70 percent compared to last season. In northern Italy, the rebound is expected to surpass 74 percent, despite an unidentified issue resulting in mysterious fruit drop in some groves.

Drought and heatwaves have had the most severe impact on major olive-producing regions, including Sicily, Calabria and Puglia, which account for most of Italy’s olive oil output.

Yields are expected to drop by at least 41 percent in these areas, along with those of Sardinia, Basilicata, Campania, Marche and Molise.

The award-winning Agrestis cooperative in Buccheri, Sicily, has endured several challenging years, demonstrating the resilience of high-quality producers.

Over the years, the cooperative has earned numerous accolades for the quality of its olive oil, including multiple Gold Awards at the NYIOOC World Olive Oil Competition since 2015.

“The persistent drought places tremendous stress on our olive trees, making it difficult for them to produce abundant fruit,” Nicotra said.

During the flowering period, the unusually warm spring and the extreme temperatures in May directly impacted the production of Agrestis’ olive trees.

“The fluctuation in temperatures between day and night, along with moisture settling on the plants, caused flower burn,” Nicotra said. “As a result, we experienced a devastating 80 percent loss of this year’s harvest.”

“Despite all these challenges, we remain committed,” she added. “Though the quantity is low, the olive oil we produce embodies our traditions and the native cultivars that have defined this land for centuries.”

Many producers in Puglia also reported a significant drop in production, although some areas experienced fewer losses.

“This year has been particularly challenging. We’re coming off a low production season, which affected the fruit set again this year, followed by severe drought. Even during winter, rainfall was scarce,” said Nicola Lamedica, olive specialist at Voglia di Puglia farm, located in the northernmost part of the southern region.

“Our strategy relies on drip irrigation and traditional olive-growing methods to combat the adverse climatic conditions we’re facing,” Lamedica added. “Through advanced pruning techniques and constant care of the plants, we’ve maintained high-quality fruit, which is now in excellent condition.”

In the central region of Umbria, producers said this season appears far more fruitful than the last.

“Last season was very challenging. We’ve just started, but this new one makes us extremely optimistic,” said Miriam Cinaglia and Sergio Rutili, owner and general manager of the award-winning Centumbrie.

“The raw material is excellent, and from our initial impressions, the organoleptic profile looks very promising,” they explained.

“From a quantitative perspective, we expect strong production in Umbria this season. Unlike last year, the drupes are richer in pulp, which raises hopes for further improvements in the quality of the final product,” Cinaglia and Rutili added.

Further north, Casale 3 Danesi, near Lucca, Tuscany, manages a 450-tree olive orchard and expects a much more bountiful harvest this season than the last.

“This year, the weather has been perfect throughout the entire season,” said Henrik Jorgensen, the farm’s owner. “We usually face numerous weather challenges, such as early spring heat followed by sudden freezes, which cause flower loss. But this year, we’ve avoided those issues.”

Additionally, the organic producer has benefited from the absence of the olive fruit fly this year.

“A frost lasting at least three days in winter usually kills most flies below the soil’s surface. This year, we didn’t have any olive flies, which is a great relief,” Jorgensen said.

“When the olive fruit fly is present, we can only use traditional fly traps since we are organic producers,” he added.

According to Ismea, Italy has more than 619,000 olive-related companies and farms and 4,327 active mills.

Of Italy’s 1.16 million hectares of olive groves, 247,000 hectares, more than 21 percent, are cultivated organically.

The southern regions, responsible for most Italian olive oil production, bear the brunt of these harsh weather conditions.

Coldiretti Puglia, a prominent farmers’ association, has warned that the region’s olive oil production may decline by more than 50 percent.

Numerous rainfed olive trees in Puglia exhibit signs of water stress, with many olives desiccating on the branches.

In regions where irrigation is possible, water remains scarce. Puglia’s water reservoirs have decreased by 57 percent compared to the previous season, leading to significant losses across the agricultural sector.

“Severe and prolonged drought is compelling farmers to undertake emergency irrigation at exorbitant costs, driven by the high fuel prices needed to extract water from wells and transport it via tankers,” Coldiretti warned. “Artesian wells are collapsing, while shallower wells are vanishing, drying up.”

Temperatures have been consistently soaring above seasonal averages, prompting the Italian Military Aviation Weather Forecast Services to repeatedly warn about extraordinary heatwaves.

The behavior of the protected starling species has shifted due to the heat, exacerbating the challenges faced by olive growers.

Large flocks of these birds are now a persistent presence in the countryside, causing significant damage to local agriculture. Coldiretti noted that each bird can consume up to 20 grams of olives daily.

To alleviate the pressure in olive-growing areas already heavily impacted by the weather, the regional council has temporarily lifted bird protection measures, permitting starling hunting during the peak olive harvest period when the damage is most severe.

Oprol, the association of olive producers in Basilicata, cautioned that the critical condition of olive groves observed since last year has escalated into a more intense emergency phase.

“We have already lost the entire olive production for the current season,” said Paolo Colonna, the association’s president. “Moreover, if these weather conditions persist, next season’s production could also be at risk.”

The situation in Sicily is equally dire. The sparse, light rainfall in some areas over the past two weeks has not relieved the parched soil. The dry weather is causing olive trees in several parts of the island to prematurely drop their olives, a natural response to extreme stress.

The entire region’s agriculture is in a state of emergency, with water reserves plummeting to historic lows.

Where feasible, the local government strives to provide some relief to farms while ensuring adequate water availability for the population. The Italian navy has delivered water supplies to the island.

At the same time, wildfires are rampant, posing new risks to forest areas and the population and complicating drought relief efforts.

Coldiretti reported that fires have already ravaged 5,800 hectares of Sicilian land. Olive, fruit and wine production is expected to collapse, with damages to local farmers potentially reaching €3 billion.

Slightly less severe drought and temperature conditions have also affected central regions, including Lazio and Umbria, home to many significant Italian olive oil companies.

In Umbria, spring rainfall and good flowering had initially raised hopes for a successful season despite this year being an ‘off-year’ in the olive trees’ natural alternate bearing cycle.

However, strong winds, extremely high temperatures and dry weather are challenging local olive farmers. In Trevi, one of Umbria’s historic olive-producing areas, many olives show signs of dehydration.

“The current drought is alarming all olive producers in the region,” Paolo Morbidoni, president of the Umbrian Olive Oil Roads, told RAI news service. “At this moment, all growers need to be cautious and act to mitigate the impacts of the drought as much as possible.”

“The situation in our area remains manageable, though the heat is severely testing the resilience of the olive trees,” Luca Perotti, managing director at the award-winning Tuscan producer Pometti, told Olive Oil Times.

“The plants can endure high temperatures and lack of rain, but the fruits are suffering. Despite being abundant this season, they are turning black,” he said. “This is primarily due to consistently high temperatures exceeding 33 ºC to 35 ºC.”

Pometti said he is mitigating the impacts of the drought by using kaolin clay on his olives to shield them from direct sunlight and the olive fruit fly.

“Typically, this product is used to protect against the olive fruit fly, but we have discovered it also shields the fruits from ‘sunburn,’” he said. “At present, we can’t complain about the field conditions. The grassing and mulching from cutting the grass certainly helps retain good soil moisture. The foliage is dense, and satellite images confirm the positive impact of our efforts.”

Conditions vary significantly in some central and northern regions, where different weather patterns, milder temperatures and excessive rainfall have, in some cases, caused substantial damage.

“Italy is a country [at the moment] meteorologically divided in two and an ongoing climate crisis that is severely challenging agricultural businesses,” said Cristiano Fini, the national president of CIA-Agricoltori Italiani, a farmers’ association.

In Veneto, where excessive rainfall has posed challenges for many farms, the current olive season demands a skilled approach to tree management.

“This year, we likely experienced more rainfall in northern Italy than ever before during the first six months. Consequently, the harvest is progressing very well,” Johannes Pan, marketing manager at the award-winning Paneolio, told Olive Oil Times.

“The positive feedback from competition results demonstrates that our agricultural and production approaches are effective, even in varying conditions,” he said. “Over the past five years, we’ve faced everything from severe drought to excessive rainfall.”

Italia Olivicola, the olive growers’ association, predicted that the ‘off-year’ combined with extreme weather conditions would reduce Italian olive oil production by at least 23 percent compared to the previous season.

European Union data indicate that Italy produced 328,000 tons of olive oil in the 2023/24 crop year, significantly above the last five-year average of 307,000 tons.

• Tempo Italia
• Agronotizie

Gonzalo Aguirre, the award-winning producer of Olivares de Santa Laura and president of the Uruguayan Olive Association (Asolur), estimated that production would fall to 500,000 liters (458 tons) of olive oil in 2024, a 78 percent decrease compared to last year’s bumper harvest and 72 percent below the five-year average.

“There was a very, very low harvest,” he said. “It was partially due to the drought last year, which did not allow the shoots to be ready to grow olives. Also, the harvest was negatively influenced for some producers because it rained a lot, and they lost olives.”

Laura Da Trindade, the director of Sabía in the southeastern inland department of Lavalleja, confirmed that this year’s harvest was significantly below the previous one.

“Our harvest was bad compared to last year but not as bad as the country in general,” she said. “We harvested 75 percent of the fruit compared to the previous two years, which were good harvests.”

“The biggest problem was the oil accumulation, which dropped significantly compared to previous years,” Da Trindade added. “We were at an average of ten percent when we were at 13 to 14 percent previously. A significant difference was seen in the amount of oil obtained.”

With production declining from 11 tons in 2023 to seven tons in 2024, Da Trindade said one of the company’s main challenges was lowering production costs to mitigate the impacts of the lower yield.

“This year’s challenges were to try to lower harvest costs because we knew it would be bad and also that there would be less demand for services in our oil mill due to the lack of fruit in the region,” she said. “This greatly increased our production costs and was one of the reasons why this year we chose to mechanize the harvest with umbrellas to reduce costs and harvest time.”

While most producers experienced significantly lower yields, María Vittoria, the director of Pique Roto in the neighboring department of Florida, said her production increased as recently planted trees matured.

“For us, the harvest in 2024 was very good, reaching 190 tons of olives harvested and milled, with 9,000 trees,” she said. “We were possibly the plantation that obtained… the highest oil production per hectare: an average of 768 kilograms per hectare, with the excellence of Frantoio, which gave us 1,417 kilograms of oil per hectare.”

“We estimate that production will reach 25 tons, 212 percent more than last year,” Vittoria added. “Production was greatly impacted by the significant drought that affected the region and the department of Florida in particular, where there were eight months without rain.”

She said the company’s main challenges are ensuring the milling process is done quickly and well to achieve high quality and enriching the soil with pruning waste and olive pomace to avoid using chemical fertilizers.

The significant decline in production in Uruguay comes after a poor harvest in the Northern Hemisphere and lower crops in Argentina, Chile and Peru. As a result, consumers in Uruguay have seen significant price rises throughout 2024.

“Prices are already increasing because the large producers in the Mediterranean set the prices,” Aguirre said. “The international bulk business in Uruguay this year increased more than ever. There was a considerable increase of 30 to 40 percent at retail.”

“Prices in Uruguay have already risen, and I believe they will continue to rise due to lack of supply and high demand,” Da Trindade added. “We had to [raise our prices] quite a bit this year.”

Even in good years, about half of Uruguay’s olive oil supply comes from Argentina, Italy and Spain. As a result, Vittoria said domestic olive oil prices follow a different dynamic than those of imported oils.

“The price of local production and sale can be set relatively autonomously and punctually, taking quality as a reference,” she said.

However, Aguirre expects import prices to remain steady in the short term and drop by the beginning of 2025 when olive oils from the latest Spanish and Italian harvests begin to arrive.

“Next year, if there is a good harvest in the Mediterranean and the region, I believe that prices may even go down,” he said.

Instead of worrying too much about prices, Aguirre is more preoccupied with the International Olive Council (IOC) bringing the Mario Solinas Awards to Uruguay in August. This is the first time the competition has been held in the Southern Hemisphere.

Given the meager harvest and pressure for the event to succeed, he worries that the timing is unfortunate.

“It has been a bad harvest, and although entering Mario Salinas does not cost money, it has quantity requirements, and producers must use a notary to seal the samples,” he said.

The IOC recently announced changes to its rules to facilitate the entrance of more small producers in the Southern Hemisphere. The amount of olive oil each producer must save from the batch has been lowered from 4,000 to 1,000 liters.

Aguirre, who has been heavily involved in the process, hopes for a high turnout from Uruguay and the other seven producing countries in the Southern Hemisphere.

He confirmed that his company would send in samples, adding that he did not know how many samples the judging panel at the Uruguayan Technical Laboratory had already received. Da Trindade and Vittoria also said they would participate.

Samples must arrive by August 15th. Judging will take place in mid-September, with the results announced ahead of the second annual Latin American Olive Oil Conference, which will be held in Montevideo in November.

“I think it is important that [the competition becomes an annual event in Argentina and Uruguay] and that the world considers the quality of Southern Hemisphere producers because, in general, there is a lot of commitment to quality here,” Aguirre said.

According to the 2023 Feeding the Economy report, nearly 13 percent – $1.1 trillion (€1.0 trillion) – of the United States’ agricultural output comes from California.

The Golden State is the largest agricultural producer in the U.S. by a wide margin. Texas and New York, second and third, combine to produce as much agricultural output as California.

The state is also responsible for virtually all U.S. olive oil production, with the California Olive Oil Council, a trade association, estimating that the Golden State produces between two and four million gallons (7.5 to 15 million liters) each year.

As a result, water is top of mind for many farmers, including the state’s olive growers, and an increasing point of tension between rural and urban Californians, especially after years of intense drought.

According to the California Department of Water Resources (DWR), agriculture accounts for approximately 40 percent of the state’s total water use and about 80 percent of all developed water, which is controlled and managed for various purposes in California.

The state’s wet winter has lifted virtually all of California out of drought, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. Still, officials are wary of improving agricultural water use efficiency to meet the state’s water needs.

“It’s important to understand that all regions in California are vulnerable to climate change, and their vulnerabilities are often interconnected, including in agriculture and water management,” Sabrina Cook, DWR’s water use efficiency implementation section manager, told Olive Oil Times.

She said that some of the responsibility for improving water efficiency falls on the agricultural water providers, the largest of whom must submit management plans that include a description of the best professional practices.

In the fertile San Joaquin Valley, which comprises the southern half of the state’s Central Valley, authorities are already tightening water regulations, which some have speculated could spur dryland olive cultivation in the region.

Mike Anderson, a climatologist at DWR, warned that the state’s wet winter is the result of current atmospheric conditions and should not be viewed as a long-term reprieve from drought.

“While climate drivers like El Niño change weather patterns that impact California, each year water supply and flood and drought risk are driven by the timing, pace and scale of atmospheric rivers,” Anderson told Olive Oil Times.

He explained that when large storms come close together, the pace is accelerated, and flooding tends to occur. On the other hand, drought conditions occur when California misses out on these storms and has more warm, dry days in winter.

“Reservoirs and groundwater provide a buffer to the dry conditions that can happen in a single dry year,” he said. “Multiple dry years tend to lead to greater drought impacts.”

Caitlin Peterson, the associate director and a research fellow at the Public Policy Institute of California’s Water Policy Center, confirmed that ample winter rainfall alleviated the drought but warned this may only be a reprieve.

“Thanks to 2023’s impressive winter and this year’s continued rainfall,” she told Olive Oil Times. “This is great news for agriculture and the state’s water systems.”

However, Peterson added that all indicators point towards more frequent, longer dry spells and larger swings in intensity between periods of drought and rain in California’s future.

“We will continue to get these short burst periods of heavy rainfall, but droughts are not going away anytime soon,” she said. “We need always to be planning for the next drought, even when it’s currently raining outside.”

As California braces for more rain, the question arises whether this helps refill aquifers, reservoirs and water basins.

“For refilling reservoirs, a high-volume, short-duration storm is as good as any,” Peterson said. “Our reservoirs are in pretty good shape overall at the moment; all but a few have more water in them than the historical average for this time of year. That is a stark difference from where we stood in February 2022.”

“Unfortunately, ‘flashy’ weather events like this are not as helpful for refilling underground aquifers,” she added. “For recharge to happen, the water needs to have some residence time, meaning it has to hang around for a while so it has time to percolate down through the soil.”

When soils are saturated with water, additional water runs off into waterways or drainage systems instead of percolating down to the water table.

“Some of this can be stored in our reservoirs and released later in the season to be used for groundwater recharge, but this brings its challenges because reservoir operators also have to think about managing flood risk, hydropower and ensuring enough supplies for other purposes,” Peterson said.


As rain continues to pound the state, concerns about potential damage arise, with some worrying that high-volume, short-interval storms create more damage to the infrastructure and crops than provide help.

“As California sees more precipitation falling in shorter, more intense periods, DWR is working with federal, state and local partners to collaborate and coordinate opportunities to enhance groundwater recharge when the larger storms come through and update reservoir operations,” Anderson said.

“This pattern of more punctuated storms separated by warm spells will become more common during our wet season,” he added. “Flood impacts to infrastructure and crops depend on “the timing, pace and scale of atmospheric river storms.”

Bekele Temesgen, a land and water use scientist at DWR, believes that education is critical to improving water use efficiency among the state’s farmers and emphasizes the use of free tools such as the California Irrigation Management Information System (CIMIS).

CIMIS is a network of automated agro-climatic weather stations that collect weather data, such as solar radiation, air temperature, wind speed and relative humidity and calculate reference evapotranspiration.

Temesgen said CIMIS helps farmers save water, energy and money by informing them to apply the right amount of water at the right time.

“A recent study by the University of California–Berkeley found using CIMIS data saves at least five million acre-feet (six billion cubic meters) of water per year in agriculture,” Temesgen told Olive Oil Times. “This translates to a monetary saving of at least $1.5 billion (€1.4 billion) in urban water costs for landscape irrigation.”

“In addition to these savings, using the right amount of water at the right time will improve environmental health by reducing surface runoff and deep percolation of contaminated water and help us mitigate the impacts of climate change through reducing energy use,” he added.

According to Temesgen, the data collected by CIMIS allows olive farmers to determine the crop water requirements. This can be done by multiplying reference evapotranspiration by the crop coefficient for olives available on the website.

Additionally, the state offers a series of grants to agricultural companies, including olive farmers, for investments in water-saving and efficient-use projects. Among these is a $23.3 million (€21.7 million) program offering grants to growers who limit agricultural water use.

Cook said that so far, six of these grants covering 4,317 acres (1,747 hectares) of land had been awarded, “permanently reducing demand on California’s aquifers while remaining available for flood protection, active groundwater recharge and sustainable local farming.”

“The Ministry of Agriculture has turned a deaf ear to the requests of the sector and, ignoring the effects of climate change in the countryside, has cut 21 percent in the insurance budget for 2024, going from €358 million in 2023 to the scarce €284 million for the new year,” said Pedro García, COAG’s head of agricultural insurance.

Although Decree-Law 8/2023 adopts some measures to alleviate the effects of drought, critics said it has not taken into account the importance of agricultural insurance as the primary risk management tool for farmers and ranchers.

According to Juan Vilar, chief executive of olive oil and agricultural consultancy Vilcon, the government should focus more on addressing the current climate crisis.

“The current climate situation is very different from before due to its increasing impact on olive oil production,” he told Olive Oil Times. “If the weather doesn’t change, olive oil prices will continue to rise.”

In Spain, extra virgin olive oil prices at origin hit record highs of €8.988 per kilogram, a 68 percent increase compared to last year, according to Infaoliva’s price observatory.

Overall, according to the European Commission, olive oil prices have risen 75 percent across the European Union since January 2021.

Meanwhile, data from Spain’s State Meteorological Agency (Aemet) show a massive increase in heatwaves in Spain since 2015.

For example, Spain experienced an unprecedented 41 days of extreme heat between June and September 2022. In 2023, there were four significant heatwaves in succession, totaling 24 days. According to Aemet, most of Spain only had rain in June.

“This year will be the longest and driest, according to meteorologists and international agencies, such as NASA,” Vilar said. “However, it will likely rain a lot in spring here in Spain. According to weather forecasts, we can expect 200 liters of rain per square meter. If that occurs, we can expect a harvest of 1.3 to 1.4 million tons of production in Spain for the next season.”

“With the current climate being unusually warm for winter, at 16 ºC in January, this is terrible for the trees, which mistake the current weather for spring,” he added. “As a result, these trees are already flowering. If the weather now turns and temperatures drop, the fruit could die. This phenomenon is called meteoropathy, where a change in the weather does not align with the natural rhythm of the environment.”

Vilar argued that Spain has plentiful water resources, and the government must invest in better protecting and utilizing them for agriculture and domestic consumption.

“We need artificial lakes, reservoirs, desalination plants for seawater, and a way to clean up black water from the cities to improve water availability for agriculture and human consumption,” he said. “The government needs to do more to improve the current situation.”

This includes defining specific strategies for each region, where water needs and availability differ, and one uniform plan would fail to meet specific needs.

“We have to think about sustainable strategies,” Vilar said. “The government is defining policies to improve the situation but needs to create infrastructure, a proper structure with practical steps. This takes investment and mitigation through insurance, which is already long overdue.”

In July 2023, Maria José Caballero, the head of rapid response at Greenpeace Spain, warned that Spain is getting hotter.

“Projections indicate that if Spain does not severely cut the emissions that cause global warming, the country will become hotter, drier, more arid and fire-prone,” she said.

While the Spanish Sustainability Observatory also noted that Spain achieved a significant five percent reduction in its greenhouse gas emissions in 2023, analysts are calling for more practical steps against the threat of climate change.

Cristina Bernal Aparicio, a disaster and risk management expert, noted that “reducing carbon emissions is no longer enough to reduce the effects of climate change.”

She added that “the base for climate change adaptation in Spain is not enough” and that the country is “not ready for future hazards and the impacts of climate change,” citing a 2019 report on local climate change policies that found less than 30 percent of municipal governments – home to 60 percent of the population – have made climate change adaptation plans.

“It is difficult because the local community needs a lot of money to cope with environmental changes,” Vilar said. “Local farmers need government backing. Without government support, there is no way to mitigate the impact of the climate crisis.”

“The law is under the government,” he added. “Local farmers can save water but cannot do anything else. They cannot create an artificial lake or take water from the sea; it is too expensive.”

Insurance can play a protective role in mitigating the negative macroeconomic and welfare impact of catastrophes and climate change disasters, including flooding and drought, according to a 2021 study by the European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority (EIOPA).

“Although around 30 to 35 percent of Spanish olive groves have irrigation, 65 percent do not,” Vilar said. “They do not have the infrastructure for irrigation. The 35 percent that are irrigated do not have enough water due to water scarcity. So, 100 percent of olive groves do not have water unless it rains.”

“In Spain, there is not enough water to live daily,” he added. “Seville [the Andalusian capital], at the moment, has severe restrictions. In Seville, these water restrictions mean that water usage has been reduced to 21 percent in the southern part. Things will become more difficult in the summer, especially if there is insufficient rain in the spring.”

According to COAG, ” the damages are greater, the guarantees are lower, and the costs to the sector are higher” due to the impacts of climate change on Spain in the past few years.

• Agropopular
• CEMAS
• Urbanet

Predictions from the California Water Blog note that the main lesson of the wild 2023 water year is that California’s water situation is highly variable, averages are unreliable and improvements are needed to adapt to a constellation of interacting changes.

Anxiety and worry are often devoted to drought and water scarcity in California. Still, a new report from the State of California Department of Water Resources emphasizes that growers must not lose sight of the less frequent and shorter wet years.

“The real key here is long-term planning. Seasonal forecasts often get it wrong and aren’t yet equipped to deal with the next-generation weather that we’re experiencing,” Caitlin Peterson, the associate center director and research fellow at the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) Water Policy Center, told Olive Oil Times.

“That means growers must be ready for everything all at once,” she added. “They have to plan for the next extreme while in the current extreme.”

The PPIC Water Policy Center connects nonpartisan, objective research to real-world water management debates. Their work is designed to prepare for changing conditions and aims to improve current and develop future water management practices.

“We’ve seen in the past how the impacts of a given wet or dry cycle can vary across the state,” Peterson said. “Sometimes, this is a random variation in weather patterns.”

For example, the drought that impacted the state from 2020 to 2022 initially hit northern California the hardest; by 2021, the impacts became more widespread.

Other times, the PPIC said this could reflect differences in planning and coordination structures across local and regional entities, as with the disparate readiness levels for the 2023 floods seen across local governments.

The PPIC brief on drought and California agriculture outlines this as a dynamic situation of a fast-paced drought propelled by climate change, and the impact of new rules is reducing water availability and increasing crop water demands. The volatile situation includes dramatic swings between precipitation whiplash and megadrought.

“The northern half of the state is blessed with more abundant surface water and a smaller deficit in groundwater than the southern half of the state,” Peterson said. “Growers in the north may have more of a buffer and more management options when dealing with weather whiplash. But there will still be challenges, and growers statewide should be thinking about how to build their resilience.”

Peterson underscored the reduction of water supplies. “It’s important to keep in mind that growers will have significantly less irrigation water to work with in the coming years, especially in the San Joaquin Valley, where we estimate a 20 percent reduction in supplies by 2040.”

A 2023 PPIC policy report emphasizes critical issues for the future of agriculture in California’s San Joaquin Valley and the impending reduction in available water.

Much of that reduction is due to new rules designed to make groundwater extraction sustainable. This is considered a vital facet of securing a reliable water supply into the future.

“We estimate that at least half a million acres of agriculture land will come out of irrigated production by 2040 in the San Joaquin Valley,” Peterson said. “That means that regardless of what the weather is doing in a particular year, scarcity conditions or surplus conditions, on average, growers can count on less water.”

PPIC research on drought in California highlights the vital imperative for agriculture to adapt, whether by finding ways to harvest more water in wet years or by rethinking crop portfolios and cropping systems.

Wet conditions can be highly costly to agriculture due to flooding, crop loss and damage to infrastructure, yet farmers count on the wet years to get through the next dry years.

California’s farmers and olive growers seek practical actions to respond effectively to the mercurial conditions and seemingly non-stop deluge of extremes. Peterson outlined several actions for building resilience by keeping all management options on the table where possible.

Olive growers could upgrade their irrigation systems to high-efficiency drip systems. At the same time, growers might also consider how to build systems that quickly move large quantities of water to fill an on-farm recharge basin with flood flows. A basin might sit idle for nine years out of 10 but must be immediately operational before a high-flow event is underway.

Irrigation systems can be costly, but the hope is that well-maintained systems pay dividends as part of a farm-wide water resilience strategy. Taking better advantage of the wet years in this way is a crucial strategy to help growers get through the dry years.

To compound the issue, last year’s wet winter and flooding in California raised the profile of flood-MAR, or spreading excess water on agricultural lands to percolate into aquifers.

“This is putting money into our collective groundwater savings account,” Peterson said. “This benefits the grower directly when they can claim a portion of the water they recharged for later use, and it benefits the basin when groundwater levels improve.”

Olives have not been specifically studied to gauge their tolerance for short-term inundation, but it is popularly known that olive trees need good drainage.

“To prepare for this, olive growers should be thinking about alternative ways to take water during high-flow events, whether that’s building a multi-use recharge basin or having a plan to divert water to more tolerant crops on their acreage,” Peterson said. “Keeping some acres in annuals is one way to do this, so you can have some flexibility on whether to plant or recharge.”

California olive growers may need to adopt a new role, defining themselves as water harvesters and looking for ways to store more water underground as a critical facet of resilience to weather whiplash.

The PPIC noted that it is getting easier for growers to divert flood flows for on-farm recharge, yet many kinks still exist.

Several policy changes could help California olive farmers adapt to the changing climate and ease the transition to groundwater sustainability.

According to the PPIC, the best thing growers can do is be prepared, be informed on the permitting options and regulations and seek government incentives where they are available to help support the kinds of investments needed.

California’s changing climate conditions continue making headlines, with growers evaluating how to best respond to looming weather challenges, from droughts to floods.

“I think people often assume that weather whiplash is a new phenomenon,” Peterson said. “On the contrary, California has always had a pendulum-style climate that swings from wet to dry on a more-or-less 10-year cycle.”

“The difference now is that the swings are getting bigger,” she added. “Dry years are getting hotter and drier. The jury is still out on whether wet years are getting wetter, but there’s some evidence to that effect.”

“We’re seeing more of our annual precipitation fall as rain rather than snow, which presents many challenges from a statewide water storage and distribution perspective,” Peterson concluded. “I think agriculture will continue to survive and thrive in California – but it might look a lot different in 20 years than it does now.”

• Pleasanton Weekly

In our annual survey, sent to 4,487 producers in 34 countries, respondents gave the 2023 harvest an overall rating of 51 out of 100, the lowest score since 2018.

Farmers and millers were most disappointed with their yield, rating it just 46 out of 100 – but also gave their judgment of the quality of their production the lowest score (72/100) since the survey began.

The despondency surrounding yields underlined the widely publicized drop in global olive oil production, which is expected to decline to 2.407 million tons in the 2023/24 crop year, the second-consecutive decrease and lowest total since 2013/14.

Farmers and millers listed climate change, lack of consumer knowledge and labor difficulties among their biggest concerns, which echoed the factors they cited as having most affected the harvest including higher production costs, excessive temperatures and drought.

Producers believe that olive oil sector stakeholders should focus on standards enforcement to reduce fraud, lobby governments for increased sector-specific support and global marketing campaigns to promote olive oil consumption.

Climate change remains the top concern for producers

Once again, the impacts of climate change remain the most significant challenge for producers, with slightly more than 63 percent of respondents calling it one of their greatest concerns.

“Climate change, especially drought, has really affected us this season,” said Mehmet Taki of Bata Tarim ve Gida Urunleri in western Turkey. “Our production has dropped by 65 percent.”

The impacts of climate change were particularly acute in the Mediterranean basin, responsible for about 95 percent of global olive oil production, with unprecedentedly hot and dry weather damaging groves at key moments of olive tree development in southern Europe, North Africa and the Middle East over the past two years.

After climate change, producers cited a lack of consumer knowledge about olive oil as one of their biggest challenges, with nearly 49 percent of respondents calling it one of their most significant headwinds.

“Consumers need to understand olive oil production better and recognize the excellence of certain products,” said Adriana Saldarriaga of Lazio-based Casale delle Mille Olive. “Otherwise, small producers will not survive.”

This point is especially true in young olive oil markets such as Brazil, where local producers said price is consumers’ number one purchasing criterion, with many shoppers unaware of the differences in quality from a ‘pure’ or ‘light’ olive oil compared to an extra virgin.

“It is very difficult to sell olive oil in Brazil as it is a country that places little value on quality extra virgin olive oil,” said Flavio Fernandes of Azeite Pedregais in Rio Grande do Sul.

Labor difficulties ranked third among producer concerns, with 40 percent of farmers and millers listing it among their biggest worries.

Traditional farmers consistently faced challenges in hiring enough workers to pick the fruit in time, compounded by higher wage demands.

“Harvesting has become incredibly expensive; they [contracted harvesters] walk away with half of our income,” said one producer in southern France.

“The labor shortage is our most challenging issue right now,” added Julio Alves of Quinta dos Olmais in Trás-os-Montes, Portugal.

While climate, consumer knowledge and labor difficulties were by far the most prominent concerns cited by producers, high market prices (25 percent), export challenges (23 percent), falling consumption (19 percent), market competition (15 percent) and tariffs (7 percent) were also troubling.

Rising costs and extreme weather hampered this year’s harvest

When asked about the events that most significantly impacted the 2023 harvest, producers pointed to production costs, weather extremes, pests and labor shortages.

Half of the respondents said high production costs spurred by inflation and the consequences of conflict in Europe and the Middle East impacted their harvest.

“Prices of fertilizers have skyrocketed during the last two years, thus hindering the amounts used compared to the production needs,” said Mohammed Bakkoury of Morocco-based Tierras de Marruecos.

According to the Spanish Association of Olive Municipalities (Aemo), the cost of producing one kilogram of olive oil has increased significantly since 2020, rising 64 percent when adjusted for inflation.

Authorities in Spain said phytosanitary product prices had increased by 70 percent since 2020. Energy prices rose by 40 percent over the same period.

Farmers and millers across the Mediterranean said higher interest rates have made servicing pre-existing loans and obtaining new ones especially challenging for small producers.

After rising input costs, the 2023 harvest was affected by excessive heat, drought and bad weather at pivotal moments, allowing the emergence of pests and hindering harvest activities.

Nearly 43 percent of producers said excessive heat had affected their harvest, a significant increase from the nearly 36 percent who said the same in the 2021 harvest survey.

Temperatures soaring into the high 30s and low 40s across the Mediterranean basin in May damaged olive trees as they started blossoming, preventing many trees from yielding fruit.

With temperatures expected to continue rising in the region, farmers are looking for more resistant varieties that can withstand rising spring temperatures.

“It is important to switch to new varieties that are able to cope with the ongoing climate change,” said Eran Galili of Galili Olive Oil in northern Israel. “Varieties that can bloom in a hot summer and are ready for a hot summer. It will take quite a few years to adapt ourselves to the new situation.”

After excessive heat, 40 percent of respondents said drought impacted their harvest this year, a significant rise from the 33 percent of respondents who said the same in the 2021 harvest.

“This year, due to the hydric stress from the absence of water in September specifically, come harvest time a few weeks later, the olives had shriveled up, and the yield was abysmal,” said Albert Cohen of Jaén-based Tropicual, adding that he needed three times as many olives per liter of oil as the previous year.

Despite some reprieve, the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said much of the Mediterranean basin remains in a drought due to higher-than-average temperatures accelerating plant evapotranspiration and previous hot and dry weather severely lowering soil moisture content.

While many parts of the Mediterranean basin remain in a drought, several regions have experienced significant rainfall, which helped replenish some water sources and created different problems for producers.

“In my region [the Croatian island of Šipan], we had a lot of rain during the summer months, followed by excessive heat. That affected olive trees,” said Mato Goravica of Bonita. “In August and September, there was a high infestation of the olive fruit fly, causing a lot of damage to the olives.”

Overall, 30 percent of farmers and millers said excessive rainfall affected their harvest this year, and 33 percent said the olive fruit fly, proliferating in warm and wet weather, impacted their harvest.

Along with rain, spring hail storms in parts of Turkey also contributed to the country’s dramatic production decrease compared to its record-high harvest in 2022/23.

“Poor weather conditions and frosts at the end of March did a lot of damage to the olive flowers and following production,” said Turkish olive oil producer Mustafa Safa Soydan. “For some elderly farmers, there has never been such a poor harvest since 1990.”

High olive oil prices help and hinder producers

Since the International Monetary Fund began tracking global olive oil prices in 1990, there has never been a steeper price increase than the one experienced over the past 12 months.

Between November 2022 and November 2023, global prices, adjusted for inflation, rose by nearly 65 percent, soaring from $5,145 to $8,891 per ton.

Thirty-five percent of farmers and millers said the higher prices had a positive to a very positive impact on their business compared to 21 percent of respondents who said it would have a negative or very negative impact. The remaining 41 percent said rising prices had no material impact.

According to survey responses, farmers and millers were in two minds about rising prices: one camp said they help offset higher production costs and lower yields, while the other worried that high prices were encouraging fraud and adulteration as well as forcing more price-sensitive consumers to either buy less olive oil or switch to cheaper alternatives.

Michail Athanasiou Sakellarios of Athanasios Sakellarios Farm said high prices could be a helpful tool for producers to educate consumers who take olive oil for granted.

“In Greece, olive oil is being used every day for cooking, so it is a product that is taken for granted,” he said. “Consumers were used to very low retail prices (€4.5 to €6 per liter), whereas the average producer would get €2.5 to 3.5 per kilogram.”

“In a small-scale economy like Greece’s very fractured agricultural sector, the prices paid to the producer usually did not cover the production cost,” Athanasiou Sakellarios added. “Now that those prices have tripled, the producer finally earns some money and makes a profit, but the average consumer has a hard time buying olive oil for everyday use.”

Laurence Deprez-Zenezini of Umbria-based Cultura Viva said high prices give producers a unique opportunity to inform the public about what it takes to produce extra virgin olive oil and why it stands out.

“There is a major opportunity around education on olive oil production, health benefits, and quality,” he said. “Without this, olive oil remains a commodity, and consumers expect to pay €10 a liter or less. This is a problem.”

However, rising interest rates and historic inflation levels caused many buyers to reduce discretionary spending, including olive oil.

“Consumers complain about the high prices, and the result is for them to order lower quantities than usual,” said Arianna De Marco of Cantasole in Puglia.

Taki of Bata Tarim ve Gida Urunleri, who experienced a 65-percent decrease in his harvest due to drought, summed up both sides of the pricing argument:

“Higher prices are compensating part of our losses,” he said. “However, we are afraid of their long-term negative effects, such as increased fraud and deterring consumers from buying olive oil. We hope that production levels and prices will normalize as soon as possible.”

Government support in fighting fraud cited as a top priority

While farmers and millers contemplated the benefits and challenges of high prices, many agreed that the sector’s priorities should be to curb some of their consequences.

Sixty-three percent of respondents said standards enforcement to reduce fraud in the marketplace should be a priority for producers and other stakeholders.

“Fraud reduction would be a huge asset and help the California industry survive here in the United States,” said Karen Tallent of The Groves on 41.

While high prices are one factor that encourages fraudsters to act, other producers worry that this year’s drop in production will result in rising levels of adulteration to meet the demand for extra virgin olive oil.

“It’s to our disappointment that due to shortages in extra virgin olive oil production worldwide and especially in Greece, producers and traders intentionally offer low-quality olive oil or blended and adulterated ones,” said Dimitris Katsanos of Alpha Pi in northeastern Greece.

Along with standards enforcement, 50 percent of producers said the sector should receive increased government support.

“The reduction of packaging costs and bureaucracy such as organic label and official analysis, specific for small or traditional rainfed farms [should be a priority],” said Marije Passos of Passeite in Portugal.

Gian Luca Buscaglia of Umbria Tellus in Italy added that authorities should consider “state subsidies for shipping costs; subsidies for processing costs (mills)” to help keep small-scale farmers operational in the challenging macroeconomic environment.

Meanwhile, Zeynep Belger of Zayto believes that governments have a role in promoting the organoleptic qualities and the health benefits of extra virgin olive oil.

“As a high-end extra virgin olive oil producer, the main challenge is to define my product as a high-quality food and not just a commodity,” Belger said.

“Consumer information and education will play a role,” she added. “Governments should support olive producers that respect sustainability as it is good for people and the planet.”

Belger’s comments tie into the need for a worldwide promotional campaign to increase olive oil consumption, which 45 percent of respondents said must be a priority for the sector.

“The consumer needs to appreciate the difference between high-quality olive oil and olive oil,” said Jeff Martin of California-based Frantoio Grove.

Beyond these, 32 percent of producers said carbon credit programs should reward olive growers, while 22 percent called for more programs to attract workers to rural regions.

Amid the trade tensions over the past five years and historic inflation levels in the past two, only 13 percent of producers called for tariff reductions and other measures to reduce prices at retail.

Rising role of tourism in the olive oil business model

Olive oil production is a low-margin business, and every way to cut costs or increase revenue is necessary to preserve the economic case for small-scale and traditional producers.

Perhaps as a result of making the math work, not to mention the natural beauty of an olive grove, two-thirds of respondents said they welcome tourists to their mill, grove or facility.

Forty-five percent of respondents described the importance of tourism to their overall business as important to extremely important, with 12 percent saying it was extremely important.

Meanwhile, more than 37 percent described tourism as less important or unimportant to their business. About 18 percent described it as somewhat important.

For producers welcoming tourists, tastings were the most common activity, with 87 percent of respondents offering the experience. Separately, 61 percent offer estate or harvest tours and nearly 39 percent run courses or workshops.

Taking advantage of the fact many olive groves are surrounded by stunning scenery, about one-quarter of respondents said they offer their groves and associated infrastructure as an events venue, and 22 percent said they welcome overnight guests.

While tourism provides an opportunity to educate consumers about olive oil quality and convert a curious consumer into a lifelong customer, producers said Byzantine legislation in some places must catch up.

“To be an agritourism [operator in Umbria], you’re required to have at least three hectares and higher earnings in agriculture than hospitality,” one producer said.

“You cannot give your guests a true experience or taste of your farm and labor unless you can afford a HACCP kitchen,” she added.

According to the office of Governor Gavin Newsom, hotter and drier weather conditions due to climate change could reduce the state’s water supply by up to 10 percent by 2040.

The Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) estimates that 40 percent of all the state’s water is used in agriculture. As the state enacts tougher water regulations and encourages improved water use efficiency, some farmers are already betting on drought-resilient olives as a crop of the future.

“Olives are not the only tree crop out there that can withstand a little deficit irrigation, but olives stand out for their drought tolerance,” Caitlin Peterson, the PPIC Water Policy Center’s associate director, told Olive Oil Times.

“They can grow on very marginal land with poor soils, something that can’t be said for many of the dominant tree crops in California, such as almonds, walnuts or stonefruit,” she added,

According to Peterson, both table and oil olives are drought-resilient. Table olives can quickly recover fruit size after a temporary reduction in irrigation, even up to a 50 percent reduction in midsummer. However, they can withstand even more severe reductions with a small (ten percent) yield reduction.

With oil olives, some water restrictions are beneficial because they keep vegetative growth in check to enable the orchard to be grown in hedgerows. Water stress can reduce the size of the fruit, but this is less important for oil production.

“While you don’t see this often in California, olives were traditionally grown in dry farming systems,” Peterson said. “This meant no irrigation and spacing trees out to avoid competition for soil moisture.”

“The fact that olives are well suited to that kind of system says a lot about their adaptability and the potential to make management adjustments for continued productivity even under water scarcity,” she added.

According to Peterson, dry-farmed olives have yet to prove economically viable in California. Still, there may be more scope for them as the availability of irrigation water declines in some areas.

Olive water systems have emerged in the context of recent drought conditions in California and ongoing concerns about drought.

Peterson said the evidence is clear that climate change is leading to more frequent and intense droughts in California.

Hotter droughts pull more water out of soils and vegetation, which can create a cycle of plant stress that further intensifies drought conditions.

A detailed PPIC policy brief highlighted the issues regarding drought and agriculture and their impact, especially in California’s San Joaquin Valley.

PPIC emphasized that ongoing drought has the impact of reducing water availability and increasing crop water demands. The brief described the dynamic situation, “a fast-paced drought – fueled by climate change – is constraining water availability and increasing crop water demands.”

“The concern with extended droughts like the one we saw from 2012 to 2016 is that you can’t skip a season of irrigation on a tree crop,” Peterson said. “We saw a lot of almond orchards getting pulled out during that drought because growers didn’t have the water and couldn’t afford to maintain them if they weren’t producing.”

“That’s a big loss if your trees aren’t already nearing the end of their productive life,” she added.

Groundwater is another factor to consider when it comes to water supply. Groundwater used to be the drought reserve for growers. When surface water became scarce in the past, growers could make up the difference by pumping as much water out of the ground as needed.

That is not possible now because California is starting to implement the Sustainable Groundwater Management Act of 2014.

“The pumping cutbacks that will occur to bring groundwater use to sustainable levels are critical for the long-term viability of agriculture, especially in areas like the San Joaquin Valley,” Peterson said.

However, she warned that between 200,000 and 365,000 hectares of irrigated land, about 10 percent of the total in San Joaquin Valley, could come out of production to reduce demand.

“We estimate a 20-percent reduction in water supplies relative to what we’re currently working with by 2040 in the San Joaquin Valley alone due to the combined effects of the Sustainable Groundwater Management Act, climate change and more stringent environmental regulations,” Peterson said.

“When you add a drought on top of the Sustainable Groundwater Management Act, things get even more difficult to manage,” she added. “My guess is you may start to see more olive orchards in marginal areas that can no longer support the thirstier trees.”

A report on Sustainable Groundwater Management Act-related water supply reductions forecasted that the transition would be challenging.

Efforts to augment water supplies include groundwater recharge, water trading and methods to manage increasing water scarcity. Even in the best-case scenario, Peterson underlined that approximately 202,000 hectares may need to be fallowed in the San Joaquin Valley.

Promising alternative land uses may involve solar development, water-limited cropping, habit restoration, recharge basins and water-efficient new housing, as outlined in the report.

Peterson noted well-documented research and guidance on regulated deficit irrigation available for olive farmers. She advised that university resources are an excellent place to learn about specific practices.

These resources can give olive farmers a precise idea of how much irrigation can be cut back when water is short and the appropriate growth and reproductive stages in which to do that.

Olives are not as sensitive to the timing of deficit irrigation as other tree crops. However, Peterson advised that some stages are still better avoided if possible.

Some persistent myths regarding olive water systems and water usage in California are hard to shake.

“Olive trees will use plenty of water if they’re irrigated fully; whether or not a grower is conserving water depends on how they manage the orchard, which is not always easy to get right,” Peterson said.

“I also think that people tend to focus too much on increasing the efficiency of irrigation systems as the key to using less water,” she added. “More efficient delivery systems help reduce water use on a per-acre basis, but we forget that that may allow a grower to plant more acres because they’re using less water per acre. The key is to look at total water use, not drops per acre.”

• Office of Governor Gavin Newsom

In the past, the “main risks for olive farming was not climatic, but more diseases (including parasites), price volatility and fraud (involving the re-assigning of olive locations),” an agricultural insurance insider told Olive Oil Times.

More recently, several European insurers have been working to elevate the importance of climate-related changes throughout their underwriting and investment portfolios.

This move has become more pertinent, especially in the agricultural sector, which is increasingly plagued by the changing climate and extreme weather events.

According to research from Olive Oil Times, global olive oil production is set to decline for a second straight year in the 2023/24 crop year, falling to 2.4 million tons, largely due to drought in the Mediterranean basin.

As a result, European insurance underwriters are issuing policies that combine protection against disease with that of drought.

REVO Insurance, the first Italian operator specializing in parametric risks and specialty lines, announced plans in October to extend its range of products for the agricultural sector with coverage specifically designed for Italian olive oil producers.

The Italian olive sector, “worth €1.4 billion in 2022, suffered a sharp fall in national production, down by 37 percent or 121,000 tons, due to drought, heat and olive fruit fly,” according to a nationwide survey conducted by the Umbria Chamber of Commerce.

Despite the move to raise the importance of climate-related insurance in Europe, there is still a gap. According to European Central Bank data, only a quarter of the losses from climate-related disasters are covered. “Greater coverage could reduce the economic damage that results from them.”

Part of the reason for this gap is the high cost of insurance coverage. In Spain, the world’s largest olive oil producer, an investigation by Agropopular found that only 4.5 percent of the country’s olive grove surface area is insured.

“In the olive sector, although it is possible to insure for drought, it is a very high risk, so there is a high price, and usually there are high deductibles and stop losses,” an insurance underwriter at an Italian firm told Olive Oil Times. “For new olive groves, it would be necessary to provide both irrigation coverage and coverage against drought.”

Even when insurance coverage is affordable, farmers may underestimate the likelihood and impact of catastrophes.

Alternatively, farmers could turn to new technology to improve yields. “Farmers need improved agronomic techniques, new olive oil varieties and decision-making support,” the underwriter said.

For example, olive oil yields can fluctuate significantly due to their dependence on sufficient precipitation at specific moments in fruit development; one option to hedge the yield risk in cultivation could be satellite-based weather index insurance, according to research published in the Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics.

In Spain and Italy, olive farmers are already using satellite images to safeguard olive oil production by tracking where their land is the driest and using precision irrigation.

Ultimately, farmers need to set a balance between technology and insurance to tackle the issue because, moving forward, climate-related disasters could raise insurance prices.

In France, premiums would rise by 130 to 200 percent by 2060 to cover these losses, according to the central bank. In terms of insurance prices, that is an increase of between 2.8 and 3.7 percent per annum, a significant rise in a low-margin business.

• Deloitte
• Reuters
• Euro News

“The upcoming olive harvest is expected to yield positive results, despite challenging weather conditions and low rainfall,” Abdelaziz Makhloufi, the founder and chief executive of the largest olive oil producer in the country, CHO Group, told Olive Oil Times.

Optimism for the new season came from Makhloufi and Wajih Rekik, the chief executives of CHO Group and CHO America, respectively.

“While visiting the groves, we observed firsthand that the prospects for the upcoming olive harvest look promising,” Makhloufi said. “Industry forecasts anticipate total olive oil production in Tunisia of 220,000 metric tons.”

Such estimates slightly exceed those recently disclosed by the Ministry of Agriculture, Water Resources and Fisheries. The Directorate General of Agricultural Production expects Tunisian growers to harvest up to 1 million tons of olives and produce 200,000 tons of olive oil.

The different estimates are mostly related to the olive oil yields expected by olive millers, which can vary significantly in the different areas of the country due to climate conditions, soil characteristics and milling technologies.

In some highly significant olive-producing regions, such as Sfax and Gafsa, growers expect a considerable yield. Local authorities expect a lower-than-average harvest in other areas, such as the northern Zaghouan province.

Should such estimates be confirmed, Tunisia’s olive oil production in the 2023/24 crop year would exceed the 180,000 tons produced in 2022/23, finishing close to the five-year average of 228,000 tons.

Industry observers expect such volumes to boost olive oil exports, which have averaged 216,000 tons each year over the past half-decade. The IOC estimates the country’s olive oil consumption at 30,000 tons annually.

According to the National Observatory of Agriculture (Onagri), between August 2022 and August 2023, olive oil export value rose 53 percent. In the same period, olive oil prices skyrocketed 58 percent.

Between November 2022 and August 2023, Onagri estimates that olive oil exports generated almost 3 billion dinars (€900 million) compared with slightly less than 2 billion dinars (€608 million) reported for the 2020/2021 crop year. The value of the country’s olive oil exports helps the country lower its food trade deficit.

Despite the hot and dry summer faced by producers across Tunisia, local companies attributed expectations of a bumper harvest to the resilience of the country’s two main endemic varieties, Chemlali and Chetoui.

“The distinctive characteristics and recognized resilience [of those cultivars] mitigated the impact of reduced precipitation, setting them apart from other varieties and regions,” Makhloufi said.

The company warned of the challenges lying ahead for olive growers in Tunisia. “Even if the olive oil sector continues to be competitive and to play an important economic, social and environmental role, Tunisian olive oil producers face several challenges in the years ahead,” he said.

“Indeed, Tunisian olive oil producers should capitalize on the major asset of the Tunisian olive sector, which is the Chemlali and Chetoui varieties,” Makhloufi added. “These vigorous, self-fertilizing and drought-resistant olive varieties play a fundamental role in stabilizing production despite fluctuations in rainfall and water reserves.”

Indeed, some Tunisian producers are bullish that the extraordinary drought and heat tolerance of these local varieties make the country less susceptible to the impacts of climate change.

“For the variety we commercialize, we aren’t afraid of 40 ºC to 45 ºC temperatures. The Tunisian olive tree can survive in temperatures up to 55 ºC,” Ramzi Lahmar, the chief executive of Mahdia-based Lamar Olive Oil, told Olive Oil Times.

Lahmar noted how the poor harvest anticipated in Spain may also provide new opportunities to Tunisian growers.

“In March, we estimated Tunisian production to be 200,000 tons. Indeed, this increase in temperatures isn’t a problem for us. It’s even an advantage. From this perspective, climate change is helping us,” Lahmar said.

“By December 2023, my company is expected to export 4,000 tons [of olive oil],” he added. “To give you an idea of scale, France produced 3,000 tons last year.”

The significantly different yields reported by Tunisian growers season over season do not surprise Fahd Ben Ameur, marketing manager of Bulla Regia, one of Tunisia’s leading exporters.

“Water scarcity results in significant alternate bearing seasons in Tunisia,” he told Olive Oil Times. “On top of that, we have many old trees and a high percentage of century-old olive trees with low production levels.”

“Tunisian overall production could increase to 300,000 tons, but climate conditions are making it a challenging target,” he added. “Farmers are investing and planting many new olive trees because olive oil is offering them a good source of income. There are varieties such as Koroneiki which are proving highly productive and with a superb chemical and organoleptic profile.”

“As many new orchards are being planted, we can hope for a significant increase in overall production within the next 10 to 20 years,” Ben Ameur continued.

In such a scenario, the CHO Group also warned that focusing on the two traditional and drought-resistant local olive cultivars might not be enough.

“It is essential to invest in technology and digitalization at every stage of production,” Makhloufi said. “Digital solutions enable better control of production variables such as water, temperature and oxygen, which is increasingly used in advanced olive processing.”

“In addition, digitalization also concerns guaranteeing the traceability of Tunisian oils via the blockchain to counter fraud and give consumers confidence in product quality,” he concluded.

CHO Group, which accounts for 20 percent of Tunisian olive oil exports, will begin harvesting during the last week of October.

• Tunisie Numerique
• Tunisie Numerique
• African Manager

However, he said production would almost certainly surpass the historic low of 663,000 tons produced in 2022/23, 54 percent below the average of the previous four years. Planas added that it was still too early to provide more precise predictions.

Officials and producers across the country have blamed the historic drought engulfing the Iberian Peninsula for the poor harvest last year and the low expectations for this year.

Rainfall in recent weeks has slightly improved the situation in the olive groves, but many producers warned that it came too late to save this harvest, instead improving conditions for 2024/25.

“Above all, this water will be used to prepare next year’s harvest,” Francisco Vañó, owner of Jaén-based Castillo de Canena, told El Mundo.

While some producers in Andalusia, the southern autonomous community responsible for most of Spain’s olive oil production, have already started harvesting, the crop year officially begins on October 1st.

Among the producers in southern Spain already transforming olives into olive oil is Málaga-based Finca La Torre. Company manager Víctor Pérez told Oleo Revista that, due to the drought, this year’s harvest started two weeks earlier than usual.

He expects to harvest 350 tons of olives, 12 percent less than last year, and produce about 60 tons of olive oil. Despite a lower yield, he said the drought favored higher quality.

“The olives have less moisture and, during the oil production process, it will lose fewer antioxidants,” he said. “Thus, the resulting extra virgin olive oil will be more powerful, bitter and spicy, of excellent quality and healthier due to the high polyphenol content that we expect.”

While recent rain means that olive oil prices at origin have fallen slightly from record highs – extra virgin olive oil dipped from €8.35 per kilogram on September 14th to €8.19 at the time of writing – experts expect the upward trend to continue.

Juan Vilar, a Jaén-based strategic consultant for the olive oil sector, told Diario de Sevilla that expectations of an unprecedented second-consecutive historically low harvest mean olive oil prices will continue to climb and some consumers would cut back on purchases. However, he said previously-feared shortages are unlikely.

“At no time will the supermarket shelves be without supplies,” he said. “There will be a series of people who will not be able to afford the purchase of olive oil and therefore will stop consuming it or will consume it to a lesser extent.”

“I wouldn’t be surprised if certain oils start selling in supermarkets for almost €12,” Vilar added.

The scarcity of olive oil and concerns about steadily rising prices resulted in Nadia Calviño, the first vice president and minister of economic affairs, calling for measures to stabilize prices.

She urged all stakeholders in the olive oil supply chain to collaborate in controlling prices, as olive oil is a staple in many Spanish households.

The Spanish government plans to invest €11.8 billion to improve water infrastructure by 2027 to address Andalusia’s increasingly hot and dry climate. This investment will focus on desalination, recycling wastewater and promoting efficient water use through infrastructure improvements.

Additionally, €3.06 billion will be allocated to digitalization, promoting new technologies and data for water and drought management.

Along with olive growers, the drought has profoundly impacted the country’s entire agricultural sector. The government anticipates a record-high number of agricultural insurance claims will be made in 2023.

Compensation is expected to exceed €1 billion for the year, with more than 90 percent of the drought-related claims already paid in August. However, many olive growers are set to miss out after previous research found that only 4.5 percent of olive groves are covered by crop insurance in the country.

The government has implemented measures to support farmers impacted by the drought, including €636 million of direct aid payments, insurance subsidies and tax cuts for producers who lose 20 percent or more of their crop.

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New research predicts that thousands of drinking water wells across the Central Valley will run dry by 2040, when the state’s 2014 Sustainable Groundwater Management Act, meant to curb excessive agricultural pumping of groundwater, takes full effect.

As a result, researchers have put renewed effort into improving water management techniques for several crops, including olives.

To that end, the tree systems lab at the University of California, Davis is investigating the precise management of irrigation in olives to achieve high yield and increase product quality.

According to their website, the innovative project “combines bio-meteorological, remote and plant-based physicological information to develop grower-friendly deficit irrigation strategies for California table and oil olive systems.”

“Precise irrigation is key to ensure the long-term productivity of olive orchards,” Giulia Marino, an assistant professor of cooperative extension in orchard systems at the UC Davis plant sciences department, told Olive Oil Times. “Olive acreage has rapidly increased in California within the last two decades.”

“However, research on olive water management in California has been neglected, and growers still rely on tools developed a long time ago,” she added.

Marino’s research focuses on using physiological information to develop management practices to improve efficient resource use and profitability of orchards.

Information and innovative tools can empower producers to implement precise irrigation practices to respond proactively to drought, regulated irrigation and water limits.

“With this project, we will develop and outreach new information to enhance olive farming operation productivity through precision timing and volume of irrigation water,” Marino said. “We aim to help olive growers increase water productivity as the industry faces supplies now hampered by climate change and groundwater management policies.”

The lab is working to identify water consumption, develop protocols and design guidelines to improve water management with technological advances.

“Our lab is working on three top lines of inquiry,” Marino said. “First, we are characterizing how much water a ‘typical Californian’ olive orchard uses through the season.”

“Second, we are developing protocols to reduce water during periods when the olive is more drought tolerant to improve productivity and yield quality,” she added. “Third, we are developing guidelines to implement innovative sensors and technologies in olive water management.”

The results offer growers an optimistic outlook, as the data confirms water-efficient and cost-effective improvements.

“Based on our results, growers could reduce water application by 8 inches per acre (50 centimeters per hectare), which is equivalent to 217,232 gallons per planted acre (2,031,979 liters per hectare) of olive,” Marino explained.

“Apart from the environmental importance of this, we calculated, based on the current price for water and electricity to run the irrigation system, that this would reduce agricultural costs by 18 percent,” she added.

A common misconception is that the olive tree is so drought-resistant that irrigation is relatively unimportant. However, Marino clarifies this myth and offers further insight.

“The fact that olive is such a drought-resistant crop may lead to the idea that it is not important to irrigate it precisely,” Marino said. “Actually, it is exactly the contrary.”

“Precise irrigation in olive groves is essential for ensuring sustained productivity of the system, particularly in high-density hedgerow plantations that are becoming very popular,” she added.

Along with productivity, Marino said precise irrigation is necessary to improve olive oil quality.

“Overirrigation would promote excessive growth, thus reducing light penetration, impairing bud differentiation and promoting alternate bearing,” she said. “Overirrigation can also reduce oil phenolic content.”

“Underirrigation can reduce fruit growth, return to bloom, and also impact oil phenols,” Marino added. “Water has to be applied at the right quantity and at the right time.”

According to UC Davis Agriculture and Natural Resources, irrigation management strategies enable farmers and producers to meet the water demands of a crop.

The available irrigation water must be applied in the most efficient manner possible. Crop irrigation strategies for olives may include deficit irrigation strategies as well as irrigation scheduling for efficiency.

Evapotranspiration irrigation scheduling, soil moisture monitoring and plant-based irrigation scheduling may be employed to best use limited water supplies.

With the increasing need for irrigation water management in California, Marino reflected on her early inspiration for this work and shared her future vision for olive irrigation.

“I grew up in Sicily, surrounded by rainfed olive orchards,” she said. “I became fascinated by the capability of these trees to survive. They cannot move, so they have to implement strategies to resist scorching summers without dying and even producing fruits.”

Marino envisions a future of technology-enabled precision irrigation systems in everyday production.

“I am eager to study these mechanisms and to implement innovative technological tools to monitor them in the field,” she said. “We are making huge steps, increasing our precision in everyday life. We are now able to use our phone to count our steps or to tell us where to go.”

“The same revolution is happening in agriculture, and I am excited to contribute to this change,” Marino concluded.

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